‘We have a long way to go’ – Aviation expert questions condition of Heathrow’s third runway

• The UK government’s renewed support for a £49bn third runway at Heathrow Airport has reignited the debate, but aviation analyst Chris Tarry of CILT (UK) questions whether the project reflects the realities of today’s industry.
• He argues that the assumptions underpinning Heathrow’s expansion – GDP growth, airport connectivity, fleet trends – are outdated. With the increase in long-distance point-to-point service from secondary airports and a significant decline in transport traffic, Heathrow’s role is transforming.
• Tarry also challenges the need for a 3,500-metre runway, pointing to analysis that suggests almost all current aircraft operations could be supported by a shorter 2,800-metre runway. Rising costs and regulatory priorities have also raised concerns, as users are likely to foot the bill for infrastructure they may never benefit from.

The UK government’s support for a £49bn third runway at Heathrow Airport has reignited a long-running debate. But for industry analysts like Chris Tarry, chair of CILT (UK)’s Aviation Policy Group, the question is no longer whether the airport can expand, but rather whether the plan reflects how aviation has changed.

“Yes, the government said, we want to go ahead with the project. We want to expand Heathrow. But the world has changed a lot since the Airports Commission issued its report… We’ve got another 10 years to go.”

Back in 2015, the expansion was justified based on assumptions about GDP growth, transport traffic, and the pivotal role of Heathrow. Much of that logic is now outdated, Tarry says.

“Rates [of GDP growth] “Even in 2019 it was probably only about 75 percent of what was expected. And from about 2023 to now, it’s probably closer to a quarter… beyond that, it’s probably about half,” he said.

He also pointed to a tectonic shift in airline behaviour: “If you look at Manchester, 50 per cent of long-haul flights are now point-to-point… and this trend will accelerate.” New narrow-body aircraft types such as the A321LR and

Even at Heathrow itself, this trend is clearly visible. “We have seen a decrease of 6 million passengers since the peak of 2018,” Tarry said. “Heathrow is now much more of an outbound market.”

Is it suitable for future fleets?

The current proposal includes a 3,500-metre-long runway, designed to accommodate large new generation aircraft. But Tarry wondered whether this fact was necessary. In fact, the government itself has noted that the project actually moving forward may be different from the one it announced it was supporting.

“It has to be fit for purpose and also affordable,” he said. “And meeting the needs of future airlines; we can already see potential aircraft types long into the future, and that doesn’t seem to include a lot of very large new generation aircraft.”

Drawing on Arora’s analysis, he noted that “at least 97.8% of all flight operations can be accommodated on a 2,800-metre runway”, including most wide-body aircraft.

This raises the question of whether the current scope is driven more by outdated thinking than operational need.

Affordability remains a critical flashpoint. Heathrow Airport is already one of the most expensive airports for users. “The only question is how high will the costs be?” Tarry warned. “On the basis of reasonable assumptions, is it possible that the fee increase could amount to around three-quarters of the current average easyJet ticket price?”

Considerable thought is given to the form and nature of the economic regulatory regime, and here the CAA appears to have replaced its primary duty to consumers and users with its secondary duty focused on enabling the airport licensee to finance their activities.

“At the moment, the CAA’s approach seems to be based on the assumption that this project will go ahead. How can we, the CAA, enable it to be funded? However, the first question to answer is: Is this project actually what the users are asking for?”

He added: “It is wrong, in my view, for today’s passengers to pay for something in the future that they may not use, and also risk that it may not go ahead at some point in the future.”

Tarry admitted that although Heathrow’s plan explicitly refers to additional cargo capacity – it is expected to double to around 3 million tonnes; It is also possible that a greater number of goods arriving by air at Heathrow would have a positive impact on reducing the amount transported by road.

“Heathrow Airport has taken up the matter… Heathrow’s proposal, in relative terms, was seen as more positive,” he said. “Sometimes the merchandise is forgotten.”

Currently, slot rules make it almost impossible for cargo-only vessels to reach Heathrow and the new runway will provide an opportunity to address this issue. However, time periods are not the only limitation on shipments; Adequate time must also be provided for standby such as for handling personnel, equipment and appropriate storage (ambient, cooler and freezer).

The primary concern of CILT (UK) is that key details remain unresolved – and not just in terms of environmental impact and traffic forecasts; There is also the question of how the airport will operate in a fragmented, highly competitive global market close to home where we will already see a significant increase in capacity at some other airports in the London area several years ahead of the current forecast of when Heathrow’s new capacity might be available.

“We have a long way to go,” Tarry said. “What is not clear is whether this is exactly what will be fit for purpose for airlines and users and affordable.”