Trump risk pushing Europe to the arms of China
In recent years, the European Union and Taiwan have deepened, but useful, their relations, especially in trade and technology.
The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated this transformation, as European policy makers looked for ways to reduce excessive dependence on China. Taiwan, with the semiconductor industry and democratic rule, has emerged as a natural partner.
But the economy was not the only driver. The increasing discomfort with Chinese geopolitical confirmation, especially in the Indian Pacific Ocean, led European leaders to reassess their strategic situation. Security concerns, as well as pressure on the most flexible supply chains, brought Taiwan to a more clear focus in the European Union’s foreign policy circles.
However, this progress can be retracted – not by Beijing, but by Washington.
President Trump’s return on the international stage has already been uncomfortable with America’s allies. His first term was characterized by unpredictable commercial policies and open doubts about long -term alliances. By imposing a tariff on both competitors, partners and the circulating path, the Trump administration often left Europe to scrambling.
In contrast, the Biden administration worked to rebuild confidence and enhance policy alignment, especially in China and Taiwan, after years of friction. This effort took a new urgency after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which mentioned Europe with the need for solidarity between democracies.
But cracks began to appear. Within months of Trump’s return to power, the difference signs appeared, including in how Europe dealt with China.
This increased rift matters. With Beijing providing military pressure on Taiwan, the island does not only need our support – it needs a wide alliance of democratic partners who want to retreat through a coordinator and reliability. Commercial relations, diplomatic participation, and participation in all -party forums enhance the Taiwan international position.
If Europe was drifting from Washington, or vice versa, Taiwan may find itself increasingly isolated. Ironically, the American administration that seeks to confront China may end more difficult by alienating allies who need success.
There is already some evidence of this shift. In recent months, many European leaders have diluted their speech on China, focusing on participating in the confrontation.
Some of this may be driven by economic interests, but many of them are related to trust – or their absence. If European capitals look at Washington as unreliable or transactions, you may see more value in their stakes with Beijing.
Of course, the European Union is barely united. While countries like Lithuania have taken bold positions to support Taiwan, others – Germany and Italy, for example – have shown more caution and in some cases, such as Hungary, and even direct support to China.
The divided Europe, along with the United States, is less -based, would make a dangerous cocktail in a global climate already volatile.
Trump’s foreign policy team may admit that China is a strategic threat, but they have not always understood the value of alliances. Washington cannot face Beijing alone. Without European support, it loses the legitimate American efforts, size and diplomatic access.
Meanwhile, China is closely watched. Beijing has already achieved by presenting itself as a stable alternative to the inability to predict Western – especially in Africa and Latin America and the Pacific. If America revolves again inward or gets out of its allies, Europe may have a choice of little follow -up to a more realistic and less initial relationship with Beijing.
The main work developed by the Biden Administration-such as the partnership of the Kingdom and the United States of America, AUKUS, will be the “quadruple” strategic talks in the field of Australian and renewed in the European Union-a costly error. Short -term political gains in Washington should not come at the expense of the long -term global leadership.
The bottom line is simple: If the United States is serious in deterring the Chinese aggression and defending Taiwan, it needs Europe. Not only as a symbolic partner, but as a commitment.
Empowering the Atlantic alliance is not just a bad diplomacy. It is a gift for Beijing – Taiwan gambling may not be able to tolerate.
Simona Grano He is an older colleague in Taiwan with the Asia Association Center for China analysis and head of China Taiwan at Zurich University.
