Trump must approach Putin with a very large stick
It has been clear that President Trump believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be convinced of stability with less than the total opening of Ukraine – specifically, to control the Donbas region in the east – and that this would be a reasonable “deal”. From the moment Russia invaded in 2022, many analysts have warned that Putin’s ambitions extended beyond these two provinces. Trump’s victory 2024 in the elections held a test.
Now, after more than three years of war and seven months since his return to the White House, it seems that Trump believes that the moment has arrived. His planned meeting on August 15 with Putin in Alaska indicates that the Russian leader may be finally ready to sign such an arrangement.
The outlines of the deal are familiar: Russia maintains about a fifth of the Ukrainian lands in exchange for a ceasefire and a form of security arrangement that stops the war.
It was not yet clear whether Putin would actually agree, and if the agreement was not a trick. But no less than the obstacle of Ukrainian President Folodimir Zelinski.
During the weekend, a day after the announcement of the Alaska meeting, Zellinski repeated that “the Ukrainians will not offer their land to the occupier.” At the same time, he left the door open to “real decisions” for peace – but only, he stressed, with Ukraine on the table.
Trump and Putin plans to meet without Zelinski. There is a game of great powers with the areas of effects and statues that can be intimidated.
Trump does not lack bargaining chips. The most urgent is the secondary sanctions package that is scheduled to enter this month, which would impose other tariffs and sanctions on countries – including allies such as India – the purchase of Russian oil, which actually forces governments to choose between reduced energy and access to the American market. The threat was sufficient for the decoration of commercial partners in Russia, and if it was preserved, Moscow may pressure the settlement.
Ukraine also has a new offer for military support from NATO countries, which Trump himself with NATO Secretary -General Mark Retty last month. It allows NATO states to provide Ukraine with American weapons and ammunition in the foreseeable future. This guarantee for continuous Western support makes it unlikely to be forced.
If Zelensky has to think about a deal that waives its lands, it will be wise to request compensation that exceeds words – it must be tangible, executed and immediate. Looking at the nature of things, Trump will need to represent him on the table, starting with the Alaska meeting.
The basic elements of an acceptable deal for Ukraine may include the following.
European Union membership: Acceptance of the rapid path of Ukraine in the European Union would give it a safe economic and political anchor in the West, even without NATO membership. Brussels will inevitably call its process and the need for reforms – especially on corruption – but the events exceeded bureaucracy. Ukraine has gained the right to fully integrate into Europe. Trump can armed Europeans to achieve this.
Destruction compensation: Russia must be asked to pay, directly or indirectly, to rebuild Ukraine cities, roads and energy infrastructure. This is an ethical and practical necessity, given the cost of reconstruction, which is estimated at half a trillion dollars during the next decade. Frozen Russian funds, estimated at more than $ 300 billion, can be applied to that.
The return of the kidnapped civilians and prisoners: The safe return of thousands of Ukrainians, including children and political detainees, who are believed to have been transferred to Russian reservation since the war began must be negotiable.
Unscreated agreement: Russia’s invasion of confidence all over the region. Any official pledge level, with verification mechanisms, must include that Moscow will not attack Ukraine again or undermine its sovereignty through secret means. Looking at Russia’s interference in recent decades in Moldova, Georgia and other former Soviet republics in addition to Ukraine, this guarantee should be wide and supported by severe consequences.
These provisions will not make Land loss intolerance, but Ukraine can give a safe future within the European field and the breathing room for rebuilding. It will be difficult to extract these concessions from Putin – but this is what negotiations revolve around. Trump and his team need the militants of the islands and a very large stick.
The risks are high enough for some opportunities to take, because the war toll is amazing. Ukraine’s economy has contracted almost 20 percent. Daily military expenditures are estimated at $ 140 million, totaling about $ 51 billion per year. Western countries have poured more than $ 100 billion as aid in the battle, but the damage is immersed: millions of displaced people, tens of thousands and more than 10,000 documented civil deaths.
Russia has pushed heavily. By mid -2014, its war bill reached $ 250 billion, with the defense spending consuming 40 percent of the government’s budget this year. The oil and gas revenues have decreased, the pressure depths. It is estimated that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed – a human cost that cannot be affected politically in a more open society.
Putin was ready to bear such losses to enlarge the largest country in the world with a marginal amount that is a testimony of the pathological nature of his rule. Pathology is unlikely to fade – this is why any deal should not stop shooting, but rather warns of the next war.
If Trump is able to do so, the Ukrainian war may actually end. If he can also force Netanyahu to end the Gaza war, the Nobel Peace Prize stops to be ridiculous. History works in strange ways, through the strangest agents.
Dan Perry is the former Cairo -based Middle East Editor in Europe and Fresh at the Associated Press, former head of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and author of two books.
