Trump faces an important week on the economy

President Trump stares a large week on the economy.

The White House trade talks are intensified before the deadline on August 1 for the “mutual” tariff and Wednesday’s decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

There will also be growth results in the second quarter, the monthly job report for the month of July, and price data that may show the effects of customs tariffs.

The tensions seem to cool between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after its rise last week during a rare joint appearance and confrontation, but the decision of the next average of the central bank can raise dynamism again.

The results can also encourage Economic and economic growth levels, Trump, which was riding high after his tax cuts through Congress faster than many expected. If they are short, they can put the White House on a defense or stimulate stagnation in the market.

Here is a preview of the next economic week of the president.

Commercial conversations

The talks between the United States and China in Stockholm, the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Kiir Starmer, started to wander in the commercial deal in the United Kingdom in Scotland, which was announced earlier this year.

Trump’s deadline is approaching on August 1 to resume definitions quickly, although China and the United States are facing a final date on August 12 after the agreements announced in May and June that dropped the three -number tariffs.

The White House announced a trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, which will witness the purchase of American fossil fuels. European leaders criticize the deal.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayro said: “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples – who joined their values and defending their interests – decides to submit,” said French Prime Minister Francois Bayro.

Trump threatened to impose a tariff on any other country that does not hold a commercial deal before the deadline on August 1, indicating that this rate will be about 15 to 20 percent.

He said: “We will mainly set a tariff for the rest of the world, and this is what they will push if they want to do business in the United States. Because you cannot sit and do 200 transactions. But we have succeeded in that.”

“I would like to say it will be somewhere in a range of 15 to 20 percent,” he added. “Maybe one of these two numbers.”

The White House also insisted that it will carry the deadline on August 1, while the previous deadlines for definitions have moved since April.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin meets with his Chinese counterparts this week, which represents the third round of talks between the two countries.

“We have a good relationship with China. China is difficult,” Trump said Monday.

Federal Reserve Decision

The Federal Reserve is likely to retain interest rates this week at the price of the price defining committee, which raises Trump’s anger, which was demanding the central bank to make discounts.

The markets expect that the Federal Reserve will maintain the night lending rates overnight in the range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent. The CME Fedwatch has a temporary stopping tool at 97.4 percent in the morning, with the possibility of a quarter of a point to be reduced by 2.6 percent.

Trump was telling the Federal Reserve of reducing prices for several months, and the Federal Reserve was suspended due to the expected effects of prices on the Trump tariff.

The tensions faded in a televised confrontation between Trump and Powell last week due to the costs of the constant renewal project at the Federal Reserve in Washington.

But Trump retracted the pressure on Powell to resign before his term in 2026.

It was asked on Monday whether it could be inspired by the Federal Reserve visit this week, and Trump replied that he would not say anything bad about the chair, despite the previous criticism.

“I think he must,” he said about lowering prices.

“I will not say anything bad. We are doing a good job even without lowering prices. With a rate reduction it will be better, we have a little residential effects,” Trump added.

He pointed out that the period of the state of Powell has ended next year.

“I will miss him a lot,” he said sarcastically from the Federal Reserve Chair, which was eager to replace.

While the Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce prices this week, its decision may not be unanimously. The Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors called for supervision Michel Bowman and member of the Board of Directors Christopher Waller to reduce rates, but not on the Trump scale that Trump requested.

Junction Report

Economists expect a vision of a rise in the unemployment rate for the month of July and slowly in the pace of creating jobs.

Employers added 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate decreased by 4.1 percent, with about 7 million people. July estimates range from 110,000 jobs to add them to 40,000 jobs.

The main reasons mentioned by companies are uncertainty in politics from continuous commercial deals that reduce investment incentives, cost pressure from definitions, and less migration.

Gregory Daco, chief economist, chief economist, wrote, “While private sector industries are expected to contribute to 88,000 new jobs, the public sector employment is expected to decrease by 48,000.”

Daco believes that the unemployment rate rises to 4.2 percent and the workforce sharing rate is fixed at 62.3 percent amid a more compact labor offer.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve described employment as “generally warned”, noting “continuous economic and political uncertainty.”

Price data

The price data will come on Thursday from the PCE’s personal expenses index (PCE), which is the preferred inflation scale of the Federal Reserve.

Economists are preparing to increase the prices fed by the customs tariff, which may get a defensive reaction from the president.

PCE prices are expected to increase an annual increase of 2.5 percent in June from 2.3 percent in May, according to inflation in Cleveland Virus. When removing Wobblier categories of food and energy, the index is expected to rise to 2.7 percent.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank put the basic number of 2.8 percent higher, its highest rate since February.

Definitions appeared in June in the other main official measurement, Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The Ministry of Labor increased earlier this month, the consumer price index rose to an annual increase by 2.7 percent from 2.4 percent in May.

“The latest data showed evidence that the customs tariff leads to high prices of basic goods components, including entertainment goods, household furnishings, and games, among other groups,” Brett Ryan and others wrote to Deutsche Bank on Sunday.

gross domestic product

The data of the total local products will come in the second quarter on Wednesday, and the Bank of Atanta expected the Federal Reserve Bank a strong annual growth of 2.4 percent as of Friday.

The annual gross domestic product in the first quarter has reduced by half a percent to a huge confrontation in imports before definitions. Imports are a proposal in the gross domestic product account.

Analysts say that Trump’s mitigation in trade is what feeds the sunny expectations for the second quarter.

“Through the effects that followed this about commercial policy, the consensus of GDP in the second quarter has not recovered, but now it is at the highest level this year.”

They added that the expectations for the third and fourth forty are less because that when the customs tariff begin to influence the economy, and to compare the conditions with the recovery period after birth.