This week’s chart: Highlights on Brazilian Iron Ore Delivery & C3 Market Rates
TThis week’s chart monitor highlighted a significant increase in the delivery of Brazilian iron ore, up 18% in Q2 compared to Q1, with a July volume reaching nearly 38 million tons (from around 29 million tons in early 2025). This marks the strongest monthly level since the beginning of the year and exceeding the same period over the past two years. While this increase is in harmony with a distinctive seasonal momentum, July has now set the highest new for the period, with a tight lag behind the record last August from 39 MT.
Vale’s production performance helps explain this momentum. Q2 output rose to 83.6 MT, an increase of 3.7% years-to-year, driven by an increase in performance in the S11D and Brucutu mine. The company remains on the track to 2025 its production destination is 325-335 million tons.
This rebound follows seasonal disorders in Q1, when heavy rain causes production to decline to 67.7 million tons. Historically, Vale’s output has dropped at the beginning of the year due to the weather before rebounding in Q2 and Q3 because operational conditions increased.
On the demand side, the Reuters survey shows that the import of Chinese iron ore is expected to remain strong in 2025 despite weaknesses in the domestic steel sector. This is driven by traders who build stocks at favorable prices and stable supply flows from Brazil and Australia.
The combination of sustainable Chinese demand and an increase in the volume of Brazilian exports has strengthened the dynamics of the market that reflects on. C3 Tubarao – Qingdao tariffs have nearly $ 25/ton, while 5TC revenue has risen to $ 30,000/day, an increase of $ 7,600 over the past month.
New factors also appear in the trading flow: India has begun to import Brazilian iron ore. Diversification of this final market demand adds to other layers of support to the sentiment of bullish capacity delivery, in addition to the additional tonnage movement of projects such as Simandou’s new bauxite activity.
For more information about the trend of shipping goods, supply, and request this week, see the analysis section below. You can also enter our news room pages under insight & news to remain updated with the latest reports.
Section 1/ Goods Rates ($/ t)
‘Great picture’ – Capesize Firmer
Comment: The market price trend described is based on marine signal assessment. For renewal of time-time and historical comparison, access to our goods market analysis here: Analytical Market Transportation Ocean Ocean.
Signs of correction and above are mainly observed on the C3 route. The current tariff is $ 25/ton for Brazil -China and $ 10.6/ton for Australia -China. The problem of excess supply in the South Atlantic has begun to decrease, as evidenced by a decrease of almost 15 Reply, now amounting to 255, while the volume loaded every day remains low at around 1.1 million tons.
Panamax – ECSA / FAR EASTA | Ultrasound / China is weaker
August has experienced a sustainable decline in spot levels for Panamax ships on the route from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) and the US Bay (USG) to the Far East, with a monthly decrease of 11% and 8%. This weak momentum is exacerbated by an increasing trend in the ECSA Panamax ballass, which is now 260, near the beginning of February 280. Although there is an increase in ballass, the volume published by the ECSA daily remains high, contributes to the resistance of the owner to the stronger transportation market.
Supramax -ecsa / Eastive Far | Ultrasound / Far Easta Mixed
Spot Supramax rates from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) to the Far East continue their decline, reaching $ 34/ton, consistent with trends from the previous weeks. Conversely, the US Bay (USG) to the Far Eastern route is strengthened to $ 44/ton, marking an increase of 44% quarter-to-quarter. Daily loading volume for supramax ships from ultrasound/ultrasound remains below 0.3 million tons but shows signs of reversing the previous decline trend.
Part 2/ supply
CAPESIZE BALLASSTERS (# COUNT) SUMMARY
Display Castesize Reply: The availability of a large ballast seeing an important decline in the South Atlantic, plummeted by 20%, while the North Atlantic experienced a slight 3%increase. Conversely, the Pacific region observed the trend of increasing ballast activity, with an increase of 11% in the Indian Ocean and an increase of 9% in the Far East/Nopac and Australasia.
Overview of Panamax Ballasters (# Number of ships): Increase
Panamax Ballastters View: Pacific Ballast Activity continues to reflect the excessive market. The South Atlantic also saw a significant 27% weekly increase, with the North Atlantic being a region that showed a coating trend.
Supramax Ballasters Summary (# Count): Increase
Supramax Ballasters View: Oversupply worsened in the Atlantic and Pacific Basin. In Atlantic, the supply of ballast jumped, up 11% in the south and 27% in the north. Likewise, the Pacific Market has increased, with the Indian Ocean/South African ocean area an increase of 20%, and Australasia increased by 40% week to week.
Overview of Handysize Ballasters (Count# Ship): Increase
Handysize pillow: Excess ships have increased significantly, with an increase of 28% in the North Atlantic. The Pacific region has also seen a substantial increase: 30% in the Far East/Nopac and 24% in Australasia.
Section 3/ Demand (Castesize)
Days -tons | Coal is reduced
An important decline has been observed in the seasonal analysis of tons of coal cargo, reaching the lowest level in three years. This decline trend is anticipated to continue because China and India focus on increasing domestic production and reducing imports.
Conversely, a significant increase trend has been recorded in small tons of mass growth, as highlighted in previous weekly insights. This week, special attention is focused on increasing the chemistry of tons-ton-day. In addition, the insight of our latest minor radar commodity shows an increase in tons of-day fertilizer aimed at Brazil or India.
Days -tons | Decreased bulk chemicals
Section 4/ Congestion
Tubarao increases
The focus of this week is the increasing port traffic jam in Tubarao, Brazil, which has the potential to be related to the new surge in the delivery of Brazilian iron ore. Congestion metrics show an increase of 28% over the past week and an increase of 44% in the past month.
By Maria Bertzeletou, a signal group
