This is not just Chinese imports. Transport trading peak season is bound for us to slow down
Usually, this is the time of the year when shipping to the US peaks before the holidays, but 2025 is a different story. When Chinese exports continue to enter, the overall trading of goods into the US has slowed down to crawl.
Imports from China have faced three consecutive weeks from the 27% year-to-year decline, according to data from Vizion, and the latest sea transport order data shows that the traditional traditional delivery container to the country at the end of September will not be realized.
“Usually, we will expect the peak starting from the last week of September before Golden Week,” said Catherine Chien, Chair of the Global Delivery and Logistics Company Dimerco Express Group. Golden Week is the main vacation week in China where many businesses are closed. “So far, there are no clear signs or large orders in the market that show this trend,” he said.
The top five product segments that contribute to the reduction of Chinese exports to the US, according to data analysis by Vizion, are furniture, toys and sports equipment, electrical devices and components, machines, and plastic and plastic products.
The toy category is a good example of what logistics professionals are described as a flat trade between the US and China.
“Toys and sports equipment are trending with 2024, but in the last 10 weeks after its peak, it tends to be flat with an average of 20% less volume compared to last year’s peak season,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion.
There are several exceptions for overall trends, such as rubber and organic chemicals, which are suitable or slightly exceeding 2024 the volume of ordering activities since May, a month when inventory frontloading causes a surge in the volume of shipping containers because President Trump offers short -term extensions effective dates for the first tariff announced in April.
The last few years also included a slowdown in the delivery of Chinese goods before the Golden Week for various factors – 2024 had its own frontloading period before the threat of port attacks in the US, and in 2023, concerns of consumer demand caused lower shipping activities than typical.
But this year, this is loading in front of the peak season of the trade war and a stable decline in orders to a more modulated level because it is a story in shipping, according to data from Sonar.
Honor Lane Shipping, which is one of the many companies that ordered Ocean transportation from China for the US-based retailer, wrote in a recent note to the client that the impact of the trade war brought “a very short, but strong surge at the end of May and early June.”
Los Angeles Port reported a number of new containers recently in July as a result of the tariff break.
But Honor Lane describes the period after the surge as followed by “fast decline and slow recovery.”
“Producers basically see a gradual increase in very slowly even before the golden week of China,” he noted to the client reported. “Many customers have reported an increase in the level of inventory in the US and stopped for temporary shipping.”
According to HLS, sea operators so far announced 35 empty shipping for October. One sea carrier alliance including CMA CGM, Cosco, Evergreen, and OOCl suspended Asian service routes to the US between several Chinese and Ports in Long Beach and Oakland, California, for the first week of September. Less ships means fewer container capacity, and it also encourages higher sea transportation tariffs, with a general increase in $ 1,000 (GRI) rates per forty feet of containers starting September 15.
The continuous negative impact of the trade war in North America trade can be seen in the fact that North America is the only region that has experienced the growth of negative container volumes during the trade war period, according to marine intelligence.
“Usually, the peak season of the sea, when most of the holiday items are sent, starting in July and continue until October,” said Noah Hoffman, Vice President of North American surface transportation for Ch Robinson. “This year, peaked in July.”
The new global tracker tracker of the National Retail Federation, produced with the Hackett Associates, shows that after almost recording the peak season during the summer, the volume of imported cargo in the largest container port in this country is expected to “continue to decline for the rest of this year.”
“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs worldwide, with a number of major trading partners being targeted for higher tariffs than the previous 10% tariff,” NRF Vice President said for the supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold in a statement released with new trade data. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs that affect the broader scope of products. Retailers have filled as much as they can in front of tariff increases, but US trade policy uncertainty makes it impossible to make long -term plans that are very important for future business success.”
“Trading prospects for the last month of this year are not optimistic,” said the founder of Hackett Associates Ben Hackett in the NRF release.
August inventory data compiled by the logistics manager index, which tracks the inventory and warehousing metrics, warns the decline in the volume of transportation which has a dripping effect down on trains, trucks and warehouses that make money by storing or moving trade.
“The fact that we see the shipping capacity rises in August throughout the month shows that there are not many items left to move,” said Zachary Rogers, Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management in Colorado State University, LMI members. “The lack of shipping right before the peak season may be a combination of several inventory that has been drawn forward, and has the potential to be less in the system as a whole,” he said.
Source: CNBC
