The new EU trading regime imposes tighter conditions, limiting Ukraine’s agricultural exports
UE and Ukraine are trying to complete the long -term trade regime, can be predicted, and reciprocal based on Article 29 of the deep and comprehensive free trade area, trade agreements before the war between the two partners. On June 30, the European Commission concluded negotiations with Ukraine regarding the main principles of the revised agreement – often referred to as DCFTA 2.0 – following the expiration of Acting Autonomous Trade (ATM).
The proposed agreement aims to modernize the existing framework, expand market access, and deepen economic integration. According to the European Commission, this new regime is intended to increase agricultural trade outside the pre-war level by removing or alleviating the remaining trading obstacles.
Although offering wider access than the original DCFTA, an updated agreement remains more limiting than ATM, especially for the exports of the main Ukraine Agri. The proposal is now waiting for formal approval from the commission.
The New Testament UE sets conditions for the Ukraine market access that is less liberal and flexible from the previous ATM. Apart from Ukraine’s efforts to negotiate more liberal trading rules by eliminating many tariff level quotas – except for the most sensitive product – the agreement attacks a balanced compromise that discusses the concerns of Ukraine and EU producers.
Sensitive products such as corn, wheat, sugar, eggs, poultry, and honey will face a tighter market boundary, with a quota set below the new trading volume -this new ATM, has the potential to reduce some of the exports of Ukraine agriculture to the EU.
For products that are quite sensitive such as butter, milk powder, gluten, wheat, and wheat groats, import quota will increase to the highest levels seen in recent years.
Items that are less sensitive, including fermented milk and grape juice, will have full access to the EU market.
This agreement also includes a protection clause that allows both parties to act if imports interfere with the domestic market. Routine review will monitor the impact of the agreement, and the final approval of the EU member countries is still needed.
As part of the agreement, Ukraine will also open its markets for the European Union, Pigs, and Sugar, and committed to harmonizing with European Union’s agricultural standards – including animal welfare regulations and pesticides – in 2028.
ATM Increases Ue-Ukraine Agriculture Trade
In 2022, the European Union temporarily suspended tasks and quotas in Ukraine goods through ATMs to support Ukraine’s trade and economy, which was greatly influenced by the Russian invasion. The free measures of the EU Duty encourage growth in the export of Ukraine seeds during the war, especially to the block. According to the Ministry of Agriculture Ukraine, the country exported 48.99 million MT grain and legume in the marketing year 2022-23 (July-June) of 48.35 million MT in the previous year, where corn exports 27 million MT, almost stable in the year, and 17 million MT wheat, down 3% in the year.
Traditionally the UE is the main buyer of Ukraine’s agricultural products, especially seeds, and the volume of imports has experienced a leap since the UE-Ukraine free trade agreement was signed in June 2022.
According to the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development, the import of European Union corn from Ukraine jumped 84% from year to year in 2022-23, while wheat entry currents jumped more than 1,600% and wheat by 736%.
In the following years, also, the section of the grain import block from its neighboring country remains significantly high compared to the pre-war rate. Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland remain the largest importers of Ukraine seeds in this period.
Ukraine seed exports to the EU decrease after the ATM ends
After giving Ukraine for two years additional access to unlimited trade, EU returned to the Pre-War Agreement on June 6, 2025, re-introducing quota and tariffs that triggered a sharp decline in the export of Ukraine seeds to the block.
The Ministry of Agriculture’s data shows that the total exports of Ukraine seeds – including wheat and corn – Fell 30% during June -Juli, 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Likewise, the European commission data shows that the EU section of the export of the seeds of Ukraine in 2025-26 I fell 33% on August 17 compared to the same period last year.
While the discussion about the new trade agreement is underway, the source said the agreement could not be beneficial for Ukraine such as the steps of previous autonomous trade.
Ukraine to divert seeds bound by EU to Asia, the Middle East
After reintroducing the EU tariffs and quota, Ukrainian exporters focused on diverting their wheat shipments to European markets to alternative buyers in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, according to sources.
Nikolay Gorbachev, President of the Ukraine Item Association, stated that if Ukraine could no longer export seeds to Europe with reasonable profits, it would direct delivery to alternative markets. “We will export [wheat] To other goals where we will compete with European producers, “he said, adding that such changes will not significantly change the dynamics of the overall trade of Ukraine seeds.
Some Ukrainian companies submitted a request to take part in the seed tender in Jordan a month ago – one was rejected by approval, while the other succeeded in supplying grinding wheat successfully, said trading sources.
While the Ukraine seed traders are targeting the Middle East and Africa, Russia’s strong presence in these markets causes challenges.
Platts, part of the S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Ukraine wheat 11.5% FOB Black Sea at $ 235/MT on August 20, down $ 1/MT a day throughout the day, while Ukraine Corn Fob Black Sea on the day on the day.
Source: Platts
