Tanker Market: US Crude Oil Exports to Decline in 2025
YouS crude oil exports have declined so far in 2025. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “after a slight increase in 2024, when global crude oil loadings increased by +0.8% yoy, things calmed down in 2025. In Jan-Sep 2025, global crude oil loadings increased by +0.6% yoy to 1,652.2 million tonnes, excluding all trade cabotage, according to ship tracking data from LSEG. Exports from the Arabian Gulf rose by +0.9% yoy to 655.4 million t in JanSep 2025, and accounted for 39.7% of global seaborne crude oil trade. Exports from Russian ports (including oil of Kazakh origin) instead decreased by -0.8% yoy to 173.3 million t in JanSep 2025, or 10.5% of global export trade. From South America, export jumped +7.6% yoy to 160.6 million t. From the US, exports fell by -10.3% yoy to 135.2 million tons in Jan-Sep 2025. From West Africa, exports fell by +2.7% yoy to 131.5 million tons. Exports from ASEAN fell -11.2% yoy to 82.8 million t in Jan-Sep 2025 (this definitely includes the Iranian and Russian cargoes moved).”
Source: Banchero Costa
According to Banchero Costa, “in terms of demand, the largest importer of crude oil by sea in Jan-Sep 2025 was Mainland China, which accounted for 22.5% of global trade. Volumes to China decreased by -3.1% yoy to 367.7 million t in Jan-Sep 2025, from 379.5 million t in Jan-Sep 2024. Imports to the EU27 decreased by -3.4% yoy to 345.7 million, accounting for 21.2% of global trade. To ASEAN, imports increased by +6.3% yoy to 211.0 million t. Imports to India continued to grow, expected to slow by +1.0% yoy to 178.0 million t in Jan-Sep 2025. To South Korea, imports fell by -1.6% yoy to 103.1 million t. To Japan, imports fell -1.4% yo-y to 82.1 million t in Jan-Sep 2025. Imports to the US fell -8.5% yo-y to 93.2 million t in Jan-Sep 2025”.
Mitera_Marigo_Aframax_Oil_Tankerb
“The United States has arguably been the biggest winner from the sanctions regime imposed on Russia and from OPEC’s efforts to support oil prices through cutting production quotas. Exports from the United States have increased sharply in recent years, to the point where they are now the third largest exporter in the world, after Saudi and Russia. The United States now accounts for 8.2% of global crude oil loading (excluding cabotage). Crude oil exports from the United States increased by +22.9% yoy in 2022 and +19.5% yoy in 2023. However, 2024 was disappointing, with exports declining slightly by -0.3% yoy to 197.4 million tonnes. 2005 was much more disappointing, with exports in Jan-Sep 2025 falling by -10.3% yoy to 135.2 million tonnes, the lowest since 2022,” the shipbroker said.
Source: Banchero Costa
“About 62 percent of international crude oil exports from the US in Jan-Sep 2025 were loaded at Corpus Christi, about 13 percent from Houston, about 8 percent from Galveston, about 5 percent from Bayport, about 3 percent from LOOP, about 3 percent from Beaumont. Given the existing infrastructure limitations, still only 51 percent of the volume of crude oil loaded at US ports in Jan-Sep 2025 was loaded at VLCCs. VLCCs cargo loaded at Corpus Christi, Galveston and LOOP. About 25 percent of the volume is loaded on Suezmax, and 21 percent is loaded on Aframax. In terms of shipping destinations, it is quite diversified, around 41% to Europe, 39% to Asia, and the rest to America and Africa. Towards Europe, around 45.1 million tons (33.4 percent of the total) were shipped from the US to the European Union in Jan-Sep 2025, while around 9.4 million tonnes (7.0 percent of the total) were shipped to the UK. Specifically, 13.4 million tonnes were shipped in Jan-Sep 2025 to the Netherlands, 8.0 million tonnes to France, 7.8 million tonnes to Spain, 4.8 million tonnes to Italy, 4.3 million tonnes to Germany, 1.6 million tonnes to Germany, and 1.6 million tonnes to Germany. Sweden, 1.5 million to Denmark. Overall exports from the US to the European Union fell by -18.8% yo-y in Jan-Sep 2025. Towards Asia, around 16.9 million tons were sent from the US to South Korea in Jan-Sep 2025, down -0.2% yoy, and 11.6 million tons to India, up +31.8% yoy. Volumes to Mainland China fell -64.9% yoy in Jan-Sep 2025 to 3.7 million tonnes, a far cry from 17.0 million tonnes in Jan-Sep 2023”, concluded Banchero Costa.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Worldwide Hellenic Shipping News
