Scientists can be native to the United States over the next 20 years

With vaccination rate Among the US kindergartens that have been steadily reduced in recent years and the Minister of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. promises to re -examine the children’s vaccination program, measles and other infectious diseases that have already been lost. A new analysis published today by epidemiologists at Stanford University is trying to determine the quantity of these effects.

Using a computer model, the authors found that with the current level vaccination rate, the measles could restore itself and be constantly present in the United States in the next two decades. Their model predicted this result in 83 % of the simulation. If the current vaccination rate is the same, the model estimates that the United States can view more than 850,000 cases, 170,000 hospital hospitalizations and 2,500 killed over the next 25 years. The results appear in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

“I don’t see this as a speculative,” says Jeffrey Griffiths, a professor of public health and medical health at the Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston, who was not involved in the study. “The important thing is that if we continue this way, measles are likely to be native quickly.”

The United States announced that measles were eliminated in 2000 after decades of successful vaccination campaign. Eliminating this means that no chain of transmission of the disease has taken more than 12 months. However, the current prevalence of measles in Texas can endanger this situation. With more than 600 cases, 64 hospital hospitalization and two dead, this is the largest outbreak the state has seen since 1992, when 990 cases were associated with a single outbreak. At the national level, the United States has seen 800 measles in 2025, the highest since 2019. Last year there were 285 cases.

“We are really at a point where we need to increase vaccination as much as possible,” says Matteo Kiang, an assistant professor of population epidemiology and population health at Stanford University.

Childhood vaccination in the United States has declined. Data collected by Disease Control and Prevention Centers from State and Local vaccination programs showed that from 95 % to 95 % to 95 % from 95 % to the academic year 2022-2023. These vaccines included MMR (measles, mumps, and measles), DTAP (diphtheria, tetanus and strokes), polio and chickenpox.

In the present study, Kiang and his colleagues, with their vaccination rates, from 88 % to 96 % for measles, 78 % to 91 % for diphtheria and 90 % to 97 % for polio vaccine, extinguished each state separately. Other variables include population population, vaccine efficacy, risk of importing disease, normal infection time, time between exposure and the ability to spread the disease and contagious disease, as well as a basic reproductive number. Measles are very contagious and on average one person is able to infect 12 to 18 people. In their study, the researchers used 12 as the original reproductive number.