Russian Oil Exports from Western Ports Slightly Decline in November, Sources Say
Russian oil exports from western ports are expected to decline slightly in November amid rising refinery numbers, but remain near record highs recorded in recent months, according to sources and shipping and trade estimates from Reuters.
Ural, Siberian Light and KEBCO crude oil exports through the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk are projected at around 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for November. This figure is only slightly lower than October’s figure of around 2.4 million barrels per day, which includes some volumes dating back to September.
Industry sources noted that in September and October, Russia’s western ports were operating at close to full capacity. Market players had previously anticipated a more significant drop in exports in November, citing increased domestic refinery processing and reduced transportation capacity due to the storm and external impacts on export terminals.
However, recent attacks on port infrastructure in Tuapse led to the closure of Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery and may prompt the company to increase crude oil exports, traders said. Additionally, the recent drone attack on the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd is expected to free up more crude for export.
“Initial nominations for November were lower than in October, but then things changed. Novorossiisk will be a big country, and the Baltics won’t be small either. Everything is in flux now,” a source told Reuters, noting that seasonal storms could still impact export capabilities.
Data from several sources, including the LSEG terminal, shows that transshipment of Ural, KEBCO and Siberian Light grades in Novorossiisk reached 0.85 million barrels per day in October, the highest level in at least the last decade.
Despite new US and EU sanctions imposed last week targeting Moscow and major oil producers Lukoil and Rosneft, Russian oil export volumes from western ports have not been affected, according to LSEG data and traders.
Source: Reuters
