Rare land, difficult options: American maneuvering in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has not been in the main headlines recently. It has slipped into the background of the American awareness-just an incomplete story in a long list of slow global flash points.

But from the attention of the West, there is something worth attention.

Since the United States withdrew in August 2021, the Taliban has not worked as a single unified movement. The Authority has shifted quietly between two competitors: Qanda’in – the hardline line, ideological and social strict – and the Haqqani Network, a more pragmatic group known for intelligence relations, political instincts, and long memory.

Since the withdrawal, Al -Qandari, led by the supreme leader of the Taliban Hibat Allah Akhundzada, called for the shots. They imposed restrictions on girls’ education, closed civil society and kept foreign participation along the arm. The base was by isolation and decrees.

The right of Al -Hakani remained in the background – watching, waiting, building alliances, and allowing the other faction to absorb general frustration. The waiting and vision approach has ended.

In recent months, Sergeyan Haqqani, the leader of the network and the Minister of Interior in Afghanistan, has risen to the spotlight. Interviews have been conducted with international ports, and it alludes to economic activation and indicates a return to school for girls.

It is not a complete reflection of the Taliban’s rule, but it is a tune – a reference to the outside world. Not all doors have been closed.

In addition to this image, Golden Hakkatariar, the leader of the Islamic Party, the second largest militant group in Afghanistan, expressed concern about the country’s direction under the rule of the Taliban.

Hemkawar warned against the leader of the Mujahideen and the Islamic personality for a long time, that Afghanistan “does not move in the right direction” and suggested that the generous council help the government. It is worth noting that he closely agreed with the Haqqani faction, which indicates a wider discontent with the leadership of Qanadhari and adding weight to the possibility of internal transformation.

If this is what it is, then it is time for the United States that has started to knock.

Paqniyahs are not reformed in any Western meaning. They are not allies. But they are players in strength who understand the leverage, and they see that the economy of Afghanistan is still supporting life.

Any American offer that carries political risks and is subject to scrutiny. Evil with them requires strict conditions, supervision, and a clear understanding that this is the leverage, not legitimacy.

With the freezing of aid, functionality evaporates, and the wandering banking system, more than 90 percent of Afghans live below the poverty line. Humanitarian shipments, unofficial trade and any criticism remaining in the depleted system that feeds the country. Al -Hakani knows that this is not sustainable.

What most Americans may not realize is that Afghanistan is at the top of the unexploited metal wealth – an estimated $ 1 trillion of resources, including copper, iron and rare earth elements, and most importantly, lithium.

China is already dominating the global supply chain, and recently suspended rare land exports to the United States in response to the Trump administration definitions. In Afghanistan, since the American withdrawal, Beijing has moved strongly to close mining deals and infrastructure contracts that could enhance their impact for decades. Iran and Russia maneuvering, too.

But many Afghan leaders, even within the Taliban, prefer working with the United States – not because they trust us, but because they respect American regimes, contracts, transparency and accountability. They may not say this publicly, but they quietly indicate that they do not like the fast deals of China and their long -term costs.

This is not an invitation to confess or a great pump for humanitarian assistance. It is not a matter of reviewing the past. It is about that in the energy vacuum left behind, the United States still holds cards – it just needs to play it wisely.

How would it look like that?

First, start small and remain calm. Determining sectors – mineral development, infrastructure, logistical services – where limited participation can open value and provide alternatives to Chinese hegemony.

Bagram, the sprawling air base, can be with the current infrastructure and the strategic location, as a cornerstone of economic development and may have a secret American consulate to support commercial participation. Tie for specific results: reopening girls ’schools, allowing trade monitoring and maintaining safe humanitarian operations.

Second, intelligence coordination was presented to the Islamic State branch, which continues to threaten Afghanistan. It is a threat that the United States takes and seriously, and they have networks on the ground that can be useful if the confidence -building channel is opened.

But this is the key: this initiative should not be driven by the same people who have formed twenty years. Former officials, consultants in the Kabul era or Afghan who fled during the collapse, cannot lead this effort. It brings a lot of luggage, lack of confidence and complications.

The United States needs new brokers, and people who understand the new political terrain, who can speak without echo and who can present conversations focusing on the future. This is what the credibility now looks.

If the United States is retreating and left the field open, then China will move. Beijing will not ask about girls ’schools, nor will they worry about development or workers’ rights. They will take metals, build roads and tighten their grip. Russia and Iran will also take their pieces, and build the areas of influence that make the region less stable.

Meanwhile, Kandharyi’s suite will grow stronger, supported by money and benefit from the two stories who can be used to pay a modest change. If the United States wants any opinion of Afghanistan after five years from now, it is time to work now.

Afghanistan may not be the same. But it was not developed. What is happening now – reorganization within the Taliban, an unannounced preference for the American partnership and the recognition that isolation is a dead end – represents one of the few real holes since 2021.

The United States does not need to flood the region. It just needs to re -enter the room.

We missed our opportunity to form how the war ended. Let’s not lose the opportunity to form what comes after that. Open a quiet line. Put a real offer on the table – targeted, conditional and strategic.

Above all, he sent a new generation of envoys who are not associated with the ghosts of Kabul. There are no guarantees. But there is also no excuse for losing the moment.

Ron McMon is the retired colonel of the Special Forces of the American Army and a former political officer at the Foreign Ministry. He worked on human weapons removal programs and destroying traditional weapons in Afghanistan and Africa.