Only half -Europe measures call for Russian escalation
Over the past two weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin NATO – the coalition failed. An accident sequence tells the story.
The first Moscow sent swarms of drones that forced NATO aircraft to scramble in Poland and Romania. Romania followed drones instead of launching missiles that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars each, including a Russian Egran plane that deserves only a small part. The defect is clear. Then three Russian MiG -31 fighters hacked the Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes on September 19.
These were intentional movements, not isolated accidents. The Institute of War Study indicated that “Russia is likely trying to measure the capabilities of Poland and NATO alike in the hope of applying the lessons learned on future conflict scenarios with the NATO Alliance.”
President Trump’s response to the social truth was a strange note: “What Russia violates the airspace of Poland with drones? Here we go!” Europe should not bet on the United States to save them. In addition to the uncertainty in Europe, on September 15, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “NATO is in war with Russia; this is clear and does not need evidence.”
But this indicates a deeper problem. From Crimea in 2014 to the first West’s reluctance in 2022, he repeated a pattern of delay itself – with predictable consequences. This could be prevented in 2014 if Europe had been decisively acted in the Crimea. The lesson is clear. Europe must show strength. Russia only respects power.
In July 2025, Robert Brovdi, head of uninhabited systems in Ukraine, warned that NATO should review his doctrine urgently to prepare for Shahids over Europe. The West moved very slowly. These warnings are now a reality. Russian drones are investigating NATO defenses, and an alliance test.
Moscow’s willingness to escalate is not a coincidence. It tests a dangerous new natural natural flying to the Polish airspace, and the exploitation of NATO’s reluctance to behave. Analyst Oliver Alexander also warned, “The new doctor cannot close the airspace and disable air travel in eastern Poland whenever Russia decides to make drones at West Ukraine.” The economic impact of continuous disorders will be devastating.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslao Sikorsky is now calling on Western allies to intercede Russian aircraft and missile aircraft on Ukraine. But the logistical services for such a process will be very difficult and Europe will not be able to shoot down swarms from drones.
Urgent call – breaking the cycle before Moscow normalizes the escalation. However, such calls were already made in 2022, when the West frozen for fear of provoking Russia. Today, it is Putin who rises freely while the West hesitates.
Putin feels triumph. In the aftermath of the Alaska summit in August, when the West began talking about sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, Putin warned that it would target, saying: “We assume that these will be legitimate goals for destruction.” Under Trump, Russia has only increased the pace of attacks against Ukraine, ignoring its demand for the peace agreement.
The Kremlin gave the priority to the unmanned aircraft, while Poland focused on sophisticated systems such as patriots, F-35S and HIMARS to prepare for the traditional war. But it is a lack of control defenses at reasonable prices. Dependence on costly aircraft or missiles to intercept swarks is not sustainable – the cost consistency is simply very wonderful.
In a recent televised speech, Ukrainian President Folodimir Zelinski warned that “work should always be preventive.” He warned that Europe should not “wait for dozens of” Shahid “missiles and ballistic missiles before recently made.
Ukrainian cities are already soaked. The expensive air defenses remain rare, and the intersections of drones take time to expand their scope, including training operators.
In July, Maria Perlinska, head of the Victory Aircraft Project, warned the drone, that there will be no “post -war”, describing the ongoing war as a prelude to a third global technology war and urged Europe to join Ukraine in building joint defenses against drones independent cities. Her warning has become a reality.
Oleksandra USTINOVA, the Ukrainian legislator from the Holos party, told me that she fears that more Russian drones will be overwhelmed by cities by 2026 and that this preventive netting will be necessary to protect civilians.
Ukraine currently launches an air campaign against Russian oil refineries to strangle the revenue that funds the Kremlin war. “With Ukraine developing its long -term capabilities, the pressure on Russia will not only grow,” said Luke Kofi, a older colleague at the Hudson Institute. Shahid drone factories have also targeted – not only seeking the bottom of the arrow, but to strike Artcher. This strategy works.
The fruits of the summer strikes in Ukraine come to production and storage sites. According to the Ukrainian outlet, Mileitarnyi, a third of August was launched – up to 4,132 of 6,303 in July. Russia’s peak attacks from swarms from about 700 drones have diminished to about 100 or 120, and in some days to a few dozen. KYIV has shown that it could suffocate both production and the inventory of these weapons.
The lesson is not the defense alone, but prevention. This means providing Ukraine with long-range missiles to hit Russian drone factories-and to drop any Russian fighters who violate NATO airspace.
Moscow’s threat is growing. The measures will not be half sufficient. When Türkiye shot down a Russian fighter plane in 2015, the Kremlin fell. The same principle applies today – Russia only respects power.
David Kerichinko is a co -research colleague at the Henry Jackson Association.
