More sanctions against Iran will not work – Trump can rewrite the play book
After constructive talks at the end of last week in Amman, the Trump administration has a rare opportunity to reset relations with Tehran – but only if diplomacy appears with the transformations of the policy that turns the real page.
A few weeks after the expansion of the American military presence and a month after the start of a bombing campaign against targets in Yemen, US and Iranian officials confirmed both the second round of the talks, probably in Rome or Amman. Trump’s envoy, Steve Whitkov, recently delivered this diplomatic offer as an attempt to solve tensions “through dialogue” instead of military escalation.
However, the diplomacy built on the top of coercion is not new – and has failed constantly. Trump ignited the 2015 nuclear deal and the Iranian economy in his “maximum pressure” campaign, but failed to provide a less challenging Islamic republic. If Trump believes that Tehran will simply return to the table, it reduces the depth of the lack of confidence in his first term.
Tehran has already rejected the proposal of a nuclear deal similar to Libya, a model that is seen in Iran as an introduction to the ultimate change of regime. In the words of the Supreme diplomat Abbas Aragchi, Iran’s initial reluctance to participate does not reflect “stubbornness” but rather the difficult lessons of the policy of the past United States. In order for any deal to succeed, Trump must abandon the failed playing book for warnings in favor of building confidence and embracing what he claims to understand better: the workforce.
Continuous targeted penalties-to a large extent enough to refer to sincerity, may lead enough to exclude the entities that were designed in the United States-to convert the differentiation and integration account in Tehran. One of the models that Trump can follow is the import of importing goods and services from entrepreneurs in the private sector in Iran, similar to the allowances in treasury sanctions regulations.
Allowing the specific trade or investment will not only appear in goodwill, but will create the type of permanent incentives that reshape long -term strategies. Such a gesture will also act as a stability guarantee at the beginning of the negotiations, which reduces the risks that collapse premature talks or collapse under the weight of the long -term mistake. It was done properly, it will lead to the diverting burden of the escalation to Tehran, forcing his leadership to determine whether to respond to the same or decline. With no fragile negotiations, the targeted penalties can pump momentum into a process of stopping to stop before they start from the ground.
This approach does not only apply to foreign policy – it is an organizational necessity. The US dollar model-to a large extent on the imposition of comprehensive sanctions at the country level designed for a world-lower tracker. For decades, the sanctions were the favorite tool for Washington, which is widely imposed, imposed strongly and rarely re -calibrated. But in the era of financial monitoring in actual time and artificial intelligence, this scandalous tool increases increasingly affects the dynamics of the global economy rich in data today. Banks are moving in dark risks, humanitarian channels stumble, and targeted systems often adapt faster than the collapse of supposed pressure points.
Few cases show this imbalance more clearly than US foreign policy in Iran. American sanctions have spread in a political, established belief. Even modest modifications are delivered as surrender or recovery. Serious reassessment of this framework is late. The structure of modern penalties must be enabled wherever possible, and isolation when necessary, and the outdated habits exceed the random pressure.
The sanctions did not break the ruling elite of Iran. They enrich the righteous regime who work in black markets, destroy civil society and discourage legal participation. No head of coercion has ever replaced economic participation as the guarantor of American diplomacy with Iran. Trump can be the first.
Trump’s commercial instincts should be directed here. Permanent agreements, whether real estate deals or diplomatic breakthroughs are not based on threats but on mutual attention. History proves this: President Richard Nixon opened China through trade, not a warning. Europe has strengthened peace after the war through economic integration. Washington has always defended markets as tools to enhance openness and reform – however, Iran, just like other countries that are imposed, is treated as anomalies.
It is striking that Tehran now indicates openness to American investment. Even Iran’s supreme leader is open to the participation of American business in the widespread and non -exploitative economy – a rare green light that provides Trump’s opening no former president.
Only Trump has political capital to form a new start, based on acquired confidence and a deal that replaces coercion in trade. Democrat suggests that it will be weak. But Trump – the president who once ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and spent his first term in facilitating Tehran – has credibility to reach without appearing on the most honest Washington factions. Just as Nixon, which is anti -communism, can go to China, Trump can only draw a new path with Tehran. But only if you choose Bravado trading with statecraft.
Trump’s speech opens the door with Tehran. A good -time trade diplomacy can be widely pushed. The first round of the talks showed that there is mutual will to reset the US -Iran diplomacy. It is time to deliberate in the exhausted playing book in Washington on Iran in favor of an intelligent and more adaptive approach: one is in harmony with the facts of the interconnected world, as diplomacy is increasingly secured by global markets and common economic interests.
Only such an approach can end a cycle of hostility that the sanctions were unable to break it.
Mohsen FarshnichaniWatering, is the main lawyer in Penal centerBoutique law firm specialized in economic sanctions, and works as a consultant at Dawn Mena.
