IGC raises forecast for 2025/26 world wheat harvest

The International Grains Council has raised its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 with forecast increases in crops in Russia, the United States and Argentina.

Why this matters: Wheat prices are at their lowest point in the past five years

The intergovernmental body, in its monthly report, raised its forecast for global wheat production by eight million tonnes to 827 million tonnes, a record high and up 1.1 percent from the previous season.

The improving outlook for this year’s wheat crop has helped lower global wheat prices with Chicago wheat prices slumping to a five-year low earlier this month.

IGC said the latest data confirmed better-than-expected returns at a number of major producers.

Russia’s wheat harvest is expected to total 86.5 million tonnes, up from previous projections of 85 million.

Crop prospects in the world’s largest wheat exporter have been boosted by record yields in Siberia.

The IGC also revised up its forecast for the U.S. wheat harvest to 54 million tonnes, from 52.4 million tonnes, and Argentina’s production to 22.2 million tonnes from 20.2 million tonnes.

Global wheat consumption only increased by one million tons to 820 million tons, which caused an increase in stocks at the end of the season to reach the highest figure in the last three years, namely 275 million tons.

IGC also said it maintained its outlook for a world maize (maize) harvest in 2025/26 of 1.297 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent from the previous year.

Global soybean production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 428 million tonnes, slightly below the 429 million tonnes in the previous season and forecast consumption is expected to increase to 430 million tonnes, from 419 million tonnes in the previous year.

“Total usage is seen at a new peak, while stocks may ease slightly,” IGC said.
Source: Reuters