Fitch ranking updates our effective tariff level monitor amid increasing USMCA compliance

Fitch ranking has updated the Monitor of the US (ETR) effective tariff level to reflect a sharp increase in imports from Canada and Mexico which is classified in accordance with the US-Mexico-Kakanada (USMCA) agreement. This shift shows that the share of goods that grow will enter US tariffs, avoid 35% tariffs for Canada and 25% for Mexico. As a result, Fitch is now estimating the overall US ETR by 16%.

In June 2025, 81% of goods imported from Canada were in accordance with USMCA, up from 56% in May. Likewise, 77% of Mexican imports met the USMCA criteria in June, compared to the 42% of the previous month. Fitch Now projects the peak compliance level of 89% for Canada and 83% for Mexico, far above the previous estimate of 74% and 63% respectively. This revised assumption reduces the estimated effective tariff rate of Fitch to 5.9% for Canada and 5.2% for Mexico.

The updated US ETR also reflects a 50% tariff level in most of the imports from India, the tariff rate is 15% in most European Union (EU) and higher rates for imports from Brazil, Taiwan and Switzerland. Because the lower reciprocal tariff in the EU, ETR for each member state ranges from around 3% to more than 18%, depending on the composition and origin of imports.

China continues to face the highest ETR among the main US trading partners, remains stable at 41.4% under the August 1 tariff regime.

This update features June 2025 data on state -level duties paid and the flow of US imports for all countries. It also includes detailed product levels for all US imports and imports from the main trading partners-Kakanada, Mexico, EU, China, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, India, and England
Source: Fitch ranking