AI could be a game changer in Amazon’s case
As antitrust authorities in Washington redouble their efforts against Big Tech, a new factor is poised to upend their strategy: artificial intelligence. The Justice Department’s recent victory against Google has been hailed as evidence that the government’s more aggressive approach to competition is working.
But the same can’t necessarily be said about other pending antitrust complaints. In fact, the rise of AI may weaken the FTC’s landmark case against Amazon, for example, because this time AI is actually changing the market in real time.
Justice Amit Mehta resolution In the Google Search case, it found that the company maintained a monopoly on general search services and text ads. But his opinion also included a subtle caveat. Although AI may one day be able to transform research, it has not yet done so, and it is not certain that it will do so in the “foreseeable future,” he wrote. In other words, AI cannot be considered a fully competitive factor because its impact on research is not imminent enough to reshape existing competition.
What might be considered “foreseeable” now looms large in the FTC’s case against Amazon. The agency alleges that Amazon illegally maintained monopoly power in two markets: online shopping “in supermarkets” and online marketplace services. The agency further claims that “no current or future competitor can threaten its dominance.” However, in both areas, AI-driven competitors are already eroding Amazon’s advantage.
For example, Walmart recently announced a partnership with OpenAI that will allow customers to make purchases directly through ChatGPT. The integration allows shoppers to seamlessly discover and purchase products, an innovation that brings Walmart’s online experience closer to the convenience of the Amazon brand. Walmart’s development is already Amazon’s biggest competitor in online retail, leading to increased competition between the two giants.
Meanwhile, TikTok Store has quickly become a powerful new entrant. Its combination of short videos and smooth payment has proven to attract users. According to Retail Dive, in February 2024, 81 percent of purchases came from repeat customers, and 75 percent of users said they were likely to buy again. These numbers indicate a current competitive threat, not a hypothetical threat years away. With the TikTok deal, and the platform banned, it appears this competitive threat is here to stay.
This means that Walmart and TikTok’s AI-powered platforms easily meet Justice Mehta’s criteria for the “foreseeable future.” As for Amazon, they are not a distant competitor; Platforms represent current challenges to their dominance.
For regulators, this presents an increasing dilemma. The speed of technological change increasingly exceeds the speed of implementation. Although AI is not yet developed enough to be fully taken into account in Google’s case, it is just one example of a general-purpose technology that could reshape markets and competition.
By the time the current antitrust lawsuits end, the underlying market dynamics will likely have already changed. If artificial intelligence reshapes how consumers find, compare and buy products, the FTC’s case against Amazon could look like an attempt to regulate the internet economy for the last generation.
The Justice Department’s victory against Google was framed as a milestone for a new era of antitrust. But if the FTC doesn’t take into account the rapid integration of AI into retail, it risks fighting yesterday’s fight and missing the next real test of market power.
Ultimately, Washington must decide whether its goal is to punish success or promote innovation. The emergence of AI-driven retail competition shows that market forces, not lawsuits, may be the most effective checks on corporate dominance. Regulators must remain vigilant, but also realistic: the pace of change is accelerating, and the law, not the courts, may emerge as the best way to open up markets.
Tirzah Doreen is President and CEO of American Consumer Institutea non-profit educational and research organization.
