AGM Week 42 – VERY SLOW!
Global markets seem to be taking a break this week as things slow down again, not only on the shipping side but even on the ship recycling side. Currency exchange rates fluctuated moderately, local steel plate prices experienced surprisingly marginal movements, while the Baltic Exchange Dry Index slipped and oil prices stabilized. BDI reported a week of losses that trimmed around 3.2% of CoB on Friday, dropping to its lowest level since early October as the Cape index led the way with a drop of more than 6% in value, while Supramaxes fell a relatively milder 9 points and the Panamax index remained steady for the week despite the overall index dropping almost 4%.
While inflation in the US picked up slightly (rising to 3% at the end of September), oil managed to gain traction this week, strengthening to USD 62.14/barrel – a 1% increase due to anticipation of a possible trade deal between China and the US, while Trump threatened Putin with further escalation as he implemented massive sanctions, not only against Russia’s oil trade (especially with India), but even the European Union is now in the mix, according to reports. blacklisted hundreds of container ships this week.
And as the global dark/shadow fleet begins to grow, the poor performance of the ship recycling market in the Indian sub-continent continues and there are few signs of hope emerging (more like an oncoming freight train) for the rest of the year. Prices have fallen so low over the past few weeks that ongoing discussions of prices below USD 400/LDT have become commonplace and it seems increasingly certain that a proper recovery has yet to provide a window of opportunity for the continent’s recycling sector.
India has been going through the most difficult times over the past few weeks with rates falling due to rapidly deteriorating local steel prices and drastic depreciation of the currency which continues to suffer due to 50% tariffs amidst the America – India – Russia love triangle. Pakistan is not far behind in the recent downturn due to a collapse in demand due to an influx of cheaper steel imports, while Bangladesh is showing moderate signs of life with some local arrivals. Occasional and aggressive bidding on larger LDT units has been very sporadic, leaving shipowners and cash buyers confused about the true position in the field. And while India celebrates a period of calm thanks to the Diwali Holiday, Türkiye seems to remain absent, be it work or play.
Overall, the escalation of the global trade war and the imposition of tariffs has left global companies confused and fearing the worst, if these reciprocal and seemingly escalating actions continue to occur, hampering the shipping sector, global trade, foreign exchange markets, steel products, and the overall cost of living. For now, freight rates remain relatively high, and recycling tonnage inflows remain very light, as we enter November 2025 and nothing suggests another year of record low supplies.
For Week 43 of 2025, the GMS Market Ranking/ship indications are as follows
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Source: GMS, Inc. https://www.gmsinc.net/gms_new/index.php/web
