A new plan to reduce Russian energy, US trade protection
President Trump has become increasingly angry with Russian President Vladimir Putin. For about two months, he threatened the Kremlin with “secondary” sanctions, which would impose high duties on imports of nations that continue to purchase Russian energy resources.
The Russians seem unintended by Trump’s warnings (as well as Senator Lindsay Graham (RS.C.) recent notes), noting the elasticity of sanctions. Many reliable sources argue that the United States cannot simply impose duties up to 100 percent on China, India or Türkiye. If all Russian energy traders partners are exposed to a new tariff, the United States will kidnap a large part of its foreign trade and destroy its trade relations with at least 26 countries.
I agree with those who believe that the new customs tariff cannot be placed on the updated date of Trump for Russia. We have seen that the 125 percent fees in China lasted less than a month, and in recent days, President Trump announced 50 percent of the customs tariff against Brazil, 25 percent of the customs tariff against India and 15 percent of the customs tariff in the European Union. The duties of one hundred percent are not reasonable. I would like to change the general approach to make definitions at reasonable prices.
The goal seems to be to reduce Russia’s energy supplies to the world. The Trump plan must make Russian oil more expensive for buyers (by the way, the European “oil price ceiling” failed. It has led to discounts on Russian oil, encouraging its smuggling and creating the “Russian” report of the “Russian”.
In this sense, Trump’s position appears more effective – but the main problem lies in numbers. The ancestor of Trump’s strategy-the draft law suggested by Sense. Graham and Richard Blumenant (D-Conn)-calls for the application of a duty to all imports coming to the United States from the energy trading partners in Russia. I think it is very radical, frankly, it has nothing to justify because there is no differentiation.
There will be a much better option to link the definitions to the actual amount of countries that countries pay to Moscow. For example, India sent $ 115 billion in its goods and services to the United States in 2024 and paid $ 49 billion to Russian oil that year. China exported $ 513 billion of goods to the United States in 2024, while it bought oil, Russian coal and coal for up to 76 billion dollars. The figures of the European Union amounted to 939 billion dollars and 34 billion dollars, in return.
If the United States develops 100 percent customs tariffs associated with imported Russian energy resources, then additional duties for India this year will be suitable by 42.6 percent of its exports to the United States, which is China by 14.8 percent and Europe with only 3.6 percent.
These numbers are not very amazing. On the one hand, it appears to be manageable, and on the other hand, the price of Russian oil is still a double -import price.
If this strategy is taken as the main strategy, the total additional duties would equal the full volume of energy exports in Russia, 261.9 billion dollars for 2024. Since the collective imports of goods and services are $ 4.11 trillion, this number makes less than 6.5 percent in additional definitions. It appears to be a fair price to expel Russia as the “Great Power of Energy”.
This procedure will make the Russian “shadow fleet” useless, as it doubles Russia’s energy price for any country except for those who have zero exports to the United States. But if they exist, they are not oil importers who may be useful for Moscow in replacing the demand for oil and gas.
I suggest amending the Graham and Blumental invoice to impose the duty of goods or services imported to the United States to an amount that is compatible with the imports of each country of Russian energy resources for the previous year.
It will be a correct recipe for destroying Russian energy exports within two to three years and put Putin’s economy on the brink of collapse without destroying America’s trade relations with its main commercial partners. If Trump adopts such a plan on August 11, the chances of stopping Russia’s aggression against Ukraine may increase significantly.
Vladislav Inuzimstif, a special advisor to the Institute of Media Research in the Middle EastRussian media studies projectHe is a co -founder and older colleague at the Center for Analysis and Strategies in Europe.
