Global trade growth is expected to slow down, weighing oil prices and exporters: IMF
Weak expectations for global trade growth are determined to consider oil exporters when the request is flat, the Director of International Monetary Fund Research Pierre-Olivier Goourinchas said in Washington DC.
Oil prices are expected to decrease 15.5% in 2025, around $ 66.9/B, and supply growth is expected to exceed the “warm demand growth” until 2026, when the price is projected to fall further completed around $ 62.4/B, according to IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outpose.
“We have seen that oil prices have declined since our last projection, and the decline comes from weaker global demand and weakens global activity,” Gourinchas said.
He said that supply also increased with an increase in the planned output OPEC, but the demand factors had burdened oil prospects. The price of fuel commodity is also expected to fall 7.9% in 2025, with a decrease in oil and coal prices balanced with an increase of 22.8% in the price of natural gas.
“Oil exporters will face a lower income than a decrease in oil prices that will burden the view for growth,” he said.
Eight OPEC+ countries that apply 2.2 million B/D volunteer slaughter announced that they will increase production by 411,000 B/D in May, three times the number that was originally promised. OPEC+ announcement triggered a rough selling action that began with the announcement of Trump tariffs in early April.
The platts date which is considered to have lost nearly $ 15/B in the first nine days of April, reached the lowest point on April 9 at $ 62.685/B before rebounding to $ 68.45/B on April 17, the latest Brent assessment was dated before the Paster Holidays.
Sumber told Platts, part of the S&P Global Commodity Insights, that the step was designed to jerk overproducers to match their OPEC+ quota by taking prices below the level needed for most members to balance their national budget.
IMF said in his view that the OPEC+ policy in this environment would be “very important.”
“The risk of reversed price of the potential interference in oil supply from countries that experience sanctions or de-eScalization of trade barriers are balanced by the possibility of further improvement in trade war and additional improvements in the OPEC+production schedule,” according to Outlook 2025.
Trump tariffs have thrown the global market into the quail, and IMF said that while the expectations of global growth “remained far above the level of recession,” trade tensions resulting from tariffs will “have a great impact on global trade.”
The IMF has cut the prospect of its global trade growth into two, expecting growth at 1.7%. Previously, the growth of global trade was estimated at 3.8%.
The IMF also said the risk of global recession now reached 30%, compared to 17% in 2024.
Source: Platts
