Iron ore volumes are poised to lead global dry bulk growth

After a brief period where growth in seaborne bauxite trade outstripped that of iron ore, international shipbroker IFCHOR GALBRAITHS projects that iron ore will regain its dominant position in global commodity markets from 2026 onwards.

The recent surge in bauxite exports, which by 2025 will grow to 43 Mt, is seen as cyclical, not structural, and thus reflects short-term supply and demand dynamics rather than long-term changes.

Overall, iron ore trade is expected to strengthen in the next few years, supported by a new wave of supply projects, broader geographic diversification and stable Chinese demand amid declining domestic mining production. India’s rapidly growing steel production will also encourage additional import needs, further improving the prospects for the iron ore market.

In contrast, bauxite trade growth is expected to slow, in line with continued declines in domestic ore production by China and weak demand growth from India, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam.

“While bauxite’s recent outperformance has attracted attention, the fundamentals show that iron ore is reasserting its leadership as the backbone of global steelmaking,” said Vincent Lemaitre, Head of Dry Bulk Research at IG.

“Increased supply capacity and resilience in end-user demand, particularly from China and India, will support the next phase of growth.”
Source: Ifchor Galbraiths