Trump pollster: ObamaCare subsidy extension key for GOP ahead of midterms

New results from a Trump-aligned pollster released Wednesday show a majority of voters want Congress to extend extended Obamacare tax credits and would be less likely to vote for a candidate who would allow those tax credits to expire.

John McLaughlin’s survey, commissioned by the conservative group Americans for a Balanced Budget, highlighted the political importance of the tax credit ahead of the midterm elections and the dangers faced by Republicans who oppose an extension.

Polls show voters blame Democrats slightly more than Republicans for the ongoing government shutdown, but majorities in both parties want to compromise on reopening the government and extending tax credits.

A 51 percent majority polled across battleground GOP districts said they were more likely to vote for “a Democratic candidate who fought to preserve and protect expanded premium healthcare tax credits” than “a Republican candidate who rejected … and wanted to end their term.”

However, if Republicans try to extend credit, polls show voters will reward them. A 56 percent majority said they would be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who voted to preserve the tax credit.

“This poll makes it clear: Preserving the extended premium tax credits is not only good policy, it’s smart politics for Republicans to protect their majority through the 2026 midterms,” ​​Dee Stewart, president of Americans for a Balanced Budget, said in a statement.

“Extending these credits is about protecting working Americans and small business owners who pay their own way and keeping coverage affordable,” Stewart said.

Most Americans who purchase health insurance through Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans are eligible for tax credits to make their premiums more affordable. Congress made the subsidies more generous during the pandemic, but unless Congress expands them again, they are set to return to the original, lower levels.

But time is running out to protect consumers from sticker shock. Insurers are expecting the increased subsidy to end and are pricing their coverage accordingly.

Consumers with 2026 ACA Marketplace plans are already seeing substantially higher premiums as state and federal “window shopping” allows people to see the cost of their plans ahead of the Nov. 1 start of open enrollment.

If that happens, premium payments for subsidized enrollees will more than double on average, according to the health policy research group KFF. Consumers are seeing double-digit premium increases on average.

Extended Obamacare subsidies are the main reason for the ongoing shutdown, which has reached 22 days with no end in sight. Democrats want assurances from Republicans about increasing subsidies before backing a government funding bill.

GOP leaders have been adamant that any expansion of advanced Obamacare subsidies should be done separately from the government shutdown fight, though many hardline conservatives argue that subsidies should not be extended at all.

The Cook Political Report survey was conducted among 1,000 likely voters between October 15-19, 2025, in eight Republican “toss-up” battleground congressional districts. Interviews were divided equally between the Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin districts. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.