Dry Bulk Markets: Capesize Markets Have Had a Turbulent Week
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The Capesize market experienced a volatile week marked by sharp changes in sentiment and rates following China’s announcement of new port charges on US-linked vessels. Initial gains, driven by speculation about potential inefficiencies, quickly reversed when it became clear that Chinese-made tonnage would be excluded, triggering a sharp correction mid-week. The Pacific market experiences significant fluctuations in C5, with rates ranging from $12.00 to $10.00. However, sentiment strengthened towards the end of the week on the back of increased operator demand despite limited miner presence. Markets from South Brazil and West Africa to China maintained steady activity, with the C3 level weakening to the low $23.00s before strengthening again to close the week in the mid/upper $24.00s. The North Atlantic remains relatively balanced, supported by consistent demand for transatlantic shipping and fronthaul. BCI 5TC opened at $28,132, fell midweek to $24,185, and recovered to $25,882 by week’s end, summing up the week’s volatility.
Panamax
US vs China trade/tariff speculation initially curbed activity with most market participants holding off on trying to figure out the full implications. During this time, physical market fundamentals were still largely shaken, despite the efforts of the volatile FFA market, physical prices remained stable by mid-week and the market appeared stable. Fronthaul demand in the North appeared a little jittery in demand-starved places, while rates for trans-Atlantic trips remained the same until the $17,000 mark last reached on several occasions for trips via USG/US east coast reshipment Skaw-Gibraltar. European Commission South America saw a slight increase in activity with arrivals in early November reaching better numbers, talk of a low to medium fare of $15,000 was agreed, albeit at a level equivalent to the P6 route. Asia saw a stronger week with NoPac markets in particular finding support, $16,500 ended on an 82,000-dwt shipment to Japan for the grain NoPac round, while LME tonnage easily reached levels above $16,000 for a trip via Indonesia to China. Period activity was limited but included $16,000 reported on an 82,000 dwt shipment to China on a 6/8 month basis.
Ultramax/Supramax
After a long holiday the previous week, conditions are slightly more positive for this sector. Atlantic as a whole is somewhat positional, stronger figures seen from South Atlantic, with 61,000 dwt capacity setting South American fronthaul EC at $16,750 plus bonus ballast of $675,000. Elsewhere, the 57,000 dwt open West Africa sets passage costs to China at $20,500. Better demand was seen from the Mediterranean, with 64,000 dwt prices in the mid $14,000s from Alexandria to the US Gulf. More new investigations emerged in Asia as the week progressed which helped improve interest rates. The 63,000 dwt open CJK set the reshipment of the NoPac round to Bangladesh at $17,000. From the south, a fare of 61,000 dwt sets the cost of a trip from Kalimantan to Bangladesh at $20,000. Backhaul activity resumed, 61,000 dwt fixed freight CJK trip to West Africa for $14,500. More activity was recorded from the Indian Ocean, a 64,000 dwt fixed freight Tuticorin voyage via South Africa Singapore-Japan return freight at $16,750.
practical size
Overall, the market remained stable and relatively balanced throughout the week. In continental Europe and the Mediterranean, activity was limited but sentiment remained strong, with some routes showing slight improvement. For example, a 40,000 dwt ship is sent from Montoir to Morocco with a grain price of $21,000. In the South Atlantic, fundamental conditions remain stable, especially for larger vessels, with a 38,000 dwt vessel reportedly set from the Headwaters to the West Coast of South America at $30,000. In contrast, the US Gulf region continued to strengthen, supported by renewed demand and tightening tonnage charts. Shipment of 38,000 dwt to Panama City for passage to the Continent with pellets costing $29,000. In Asia, sentiment remains largely positional, with some signs of tonnage tightening in the North Pacific and Southeast Asia; however, interest rates are generally stable. The 39,000 dwt vessel was reportedly laid out from Zhenjiang to the Arabian Gulf at a cost of $18,000. Period markets are also attracting interest, with a 36,000-dwt open in the Far East in late October setting a one-year price at $13,150, while another 39,000-dwt open in Vietnam is set for a 3/4 month at $15,750.
Source: Baltic Exchange
