DRY BULK QUARTER: Asia-Pacific Panamax outperforms Capesize and Supramax segments in Q3
Dry bulk freight rates in the third quarter of 2025 showed mixed performance across all vessel segments compared to the same period in 2024, amidst high seaborne trade volumes, despite concerns regarding the global macroeconomic outlook.
These mixed results were primarily driven by strong grain movements in the Panamax segment and increased small-batch shipments on Supramax, reflecting a balance of market supply growth, regional trade dynamics and sector-specific demand fluctuations.
The Platts Capesize T4 Index, a global weighted average ton-mile index of four Capesize routes, averaged $23,394 per day in Q3 2025, a decrease compared to $25,032 per day from Q3 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.
Meanwhile, the Platts KMAX9 Index, which is a global ton-mile weighted average of nine Panamax routes, averaged $15,562 per day in Q3, a modest increase from $14,145 per day in the same period in 2024.
Likewise, the Platts APSI Index 5, which is a one-ton-mile weighted average of five Supramax freight routes in Asia-Pacific, averaged $11,135 per day in Q3, a small decline from the $11,408 per day average recorded in Q3 2024.
Capesize market optimism to maintain revenue
Oversized market sources expressed confidence and cautious optimism that average earnings in the coming quarters are likely to remain stable. “West Australian miners’ iron ore export volumes continued to meet expectations in the last quarter],” a shipowner source commented, indicating that the Capesize market had found its footing after a fairly volatile first half of 2025, where freight rates and export volumes lagged compared to the same period in 2024.
A second shipowner source expressed a similar view that Pacific market performance was relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025 and export volumes increased compared to the previous quarter. This suggests that fundamental conditions in the Atlantic were key in determining the fate of the Capesize segment in the fourth quarter. The same shipowner source cited positive elements such as the Simandou iron ore mine project in Guinea, which is expected to start its first export shipments in November and potentially provide an additional boost to Capesize earnings.
Additionally, Capesize shipping sources also expect large mining companies in Brazil to actively export iron ore volumes as early as the fourth quarter, as some Brazilian iron ore miners were heard delaying their mining in the third quarter to the fourth quarter and will likely have to ship it before the rainy season begins in South America towards the end of the calendar year. “We will probably see less [Brazil iron ore requirements] with November and December approaching the start of the rainy season,” a shipbroking source quipped. Thus, market players have a fairly positive view of the Atlantic Capesize market in the short term.
The Panamax sector strengthened amid increased demand for coal and grain
Although the Panamax segment saw significant price increases starting in the second half of August, driven by strong demand in both basins, uncertainty still remains regarding grain movements in the final quarter of 2025.
“China has bought a lot of things [soybeans] from Argentina in November and through the first quarter of 2026,” a source operating the ship highlighted, stating that increased shipments of Argentinian soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 could potentially increase prices in the South Atlantic market and therefore provide support to prices in the Pacific. However, grain demand in the North Pacific remains a question mark due to the ongoing US-China tariff issues, the source added.
Towards the end of September, China purchased up to 40 cargoes of soybeans from Argentina after Argentina suspended export taxes, and most of the cargoes were scheduled to be loaded in November.
However, a second source operating the ship expressed doubts about the impact of the increased soybean cargo from Argentina. “There will be more cargoes from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) in November, but seasonally, overall grain volumes will increase [in the Atlantic] still lower,” the source quipped, noting that increased cargo from Argentina would not be enough to offset lower ton-mile demand from US Gulf-China flows, resulting from US tariff tensions.
Small quantity demand has the potential to support Supramax prices
Likewise, market players also expressed different views regarding the prospects for the Supramax segment in Q4. Although some sources adopt a bearish view, believing that the Pacific market peaks in the third quarter of 2025, others argue that the market will remain stable for the rest of the year.
“Large small-scale trade remains strong in the Pacific and this alone may be enough to support current trade rates,” said a third source who operates the ships.
According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, small bulk shipments loaded from the Southeast Asia region using Supramax and Ultramax vessels increased by around 11.25% compared to last year, from 34.94 million mt in Q3 2024 to 38.87 million mt in Q3 2025, this shows high demand for minor bulk cargoes such as clinker.
In terms of coal, a coal analyst working with commodity traders noted that coal shipments to China, largely to meet winter restocking needs, are expected to be higher in Q4 compared to Q3 this year, although volumes will still be lower compared to the same period last year. “There will also be supply-side issues due to stringent inspections at Chinese coal mines,” added the same source, indicating that domestic coal production in China may be limited due to the government’s ongoing crackdown on key mining regions.
In contrast, ship leasing sources expressed concerns over thermal coal demand for the remainder of the year. They believe that demand in Q4 will not see a significant increase compared to Q3, mainly due to the major headwinds facing the Chinese economy, which is reducing industrial coal consumption.
Source: Platts
