China is delaying soybean purchases due to high premiums in Brazil, traders said

China has yet to secure most of its soybean supplies for December and January as high premiums on Brazilian cargoes discourage buyers, a development that could prompt Beijing to tap the country’s reserves to meet short-term needs, three trade sources said.

China still needs to buy about 8–9 million metric tons of soybeans for December-January delivery after covering cargoes through November with large purchases of Argentinian nuts in recent weeks, the sources said. Escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions continue to hinder US supplies.

“China is not buying American coffee beans because of the trade war and the price of Brazilian coffee beans is too expensive,” said one oilseed trader at an international trading company that supplies agricultural products to China.

“China will probably use up its own reserves at the end of the year and early next year, before the new South American harvest arrives.” he said.

PREMIUM BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN
Brazil soybean premiums held at $2.8-2.9 per bushel over the November Chicago soybean contract (SX25) compared with U.S. premiums in the $1.7 per bushel range.

Margin crush was in negative territory (CNSOY-RZO-MRG) for most of the second half of the year.

China’s soybean imports reached record highs in May, June, July, August and September. Rizhao’s crushing margin remained negative for most of the second half of the year
Thomson Reuters Record Chinese soybean imports weigh on profit margins

Crushing companies have no motivation to secure soybean cargoes in December-January as supplies from Brazil have reduced their margins, said a Shanghai-based trader.

Chinese buyers hope that an earlier, record-high soybean harvest in Brazil in early 2026 will help lower prices.

Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 177.64 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, about 6 million tons more than the previous year, crop body Conab said.
“We think shipments of the new crop from Brazil could start at the end of January,” said a second oilseeds trader. The sources declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
US-CHINA SOYBEAN TALK
Chinese buyers also haven’t completely wiped out supplies from the US, as oilseed processors are likely to make purchases in December-January if there is a trade agreement between the two governments, traders and analysts said.

“If a deal goes through, Chinese buyers will likely switch to US coffee beans within two months, at prices that are more attractive than offerings in South America,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

Soybeans are expected to be on the agenda of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. But Beijing has not publicly confirmed the talks.

On Tuesday, Trump accused China of “intentionally” avoiding purchasing US soybeans, calling it an “economically hostile action” that had “caused hardship” for American soybean farmers.

Since the first Trump administration, China has diversified its soybean imports. In 2024, China bought about 20% of its soybeans from the US, down from 41% in 2016, according to customs data.
Source: Reuters