The Gaza agreement is just one step
President Trump and his Gulf allies deserve great credit for arranging the current agreement between Hamas and Israel. But this is only one step in what could be a hundred-step process.
The agreement is also very fragile. Firing a bullet at the wrong place and time can ruin everything. The failure of Hamas or Israel to make any commitment could be similarly devastating.
This is all highly speculative. No matter how difficult and unachievable this first step may seem, with the ceasefire, prisoner exchange, and partial Israeli withdrawal, this is the easy part.
As we all saw in Afghanistan after the rapid fall of the Taliban in 2001, and in Iraq in 2003, this led to disaster. State-building in Afghanistan has turned into a nightmare, just as imposing democracy in Iraq has proven to be a fool’s errand.
Some basic questions explain how difficult it will be to restore even a small degree of normalcy to Gaza.
What role will Hamas play, Israel’s hated enemy, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to eliminate? Will Hamas remain in power on a fait accompli basis or not? Will it maintain its hostility towards Israel and plan another attack on October 7? Can she be trusted? These are among the questions that cannot be answered.
How will 2.5 million Palestinians be resettled? Much or most of Gaza looks like the German cities destroyed during World War II by Allied bombing. Who will undertake the reconstruction?
Who will pay hundreds of billions or even trillions for this huge effort? How long will it take? Will the transformation happen quickly enough to prevent backlash and riots among residents, who see themselves trapped in an endless quest for safety and security?
How will Gaza be governed? By whom? Given that Hamas was elected a long time ago – regardless of how rigged those elections were and how long ago they were held – are there enough competent and brave Gazans to volunteer for a potentially life-threatening mission?
How will peace and public safety be achieved and crime reduced to a minimum? Will these security forces have sufficient training and weapons to be effective? Or will arming them be seen as a direct threat to Israel?
What will be Israel’s role? Will it continue to target Hamas? Will Israeli settlements in the West Bank continue to anger Palestinians and Gazans alike? Will the famous and forever elusive “two-state solution” have any chance of being revived? Or will that vision die permanently upon arrival?
What about external guarantors? Will the United States remain steadfastly committed to Israel and keep Israel awash in arms? Or will the agreement allow the administration to extricate itself from the long predicament that has lasted this decade?
Will the Gulf countries, which are rich in oil and gas, be willing to provide the necessary funds? Will Israel stop assassination attempts against Hamas and other terrorists who may be living in those countries, as it did last month, which almost derailed any chances for a settlement?
What about other terrorist groups that wish to derail any peace with Israel, or right-wing Israeli extremists who believe that a good Palestinian is as dead as a religious fanatic killed Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin? Can these groups and individuals be contained and prevented from doing their worst?
Will the United Nations and other countries participate in a plan to rebuild Gaza that includes sending “peacekeeping” or “security” forces to stop potential violence during this long and painful transitional period towards a better life for the people of Gaza?
History here is not kind. As we know, the only successful rehabilitation operation was the Allied and US occupation of Germany, Japan and Italy, which required hundreds of thousands of troops.
In the case of Vietnam, whose transition was self-financed, meaning it received only minimal foreign aid and assistance, it took many decades for it to recover from the ravages of decades of war against the Japanese, French, and Americans. Will Gaza be an exception?
Much will depend on Trump. Is he in a long-term commitment? Or will he be happy to move on to a new endeavour?
Honestly, these are just a few of the questions that need answers.
Harlan UllmanPh.D., is a distinguished columnist for UPI, a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council, the head of two private companies and the principal author of The Shock and Awe Doctrine. He and former UK Defense Secretary David Richards are the authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic disasters.
