Think in the future: Is the level of level of no use?

You might be used to the Game Teatime Hit Slauang without points. And that makes me think. After a decrease in the surprise level of Riksbank Sweden and, when the Fed began its own easing cycle, would there be a difference? Of course complicated, but hopefully entertaining. Fingers on buzzers when we look forward to another week of the jackpot on the financial market

Is the tariff cutting is useless?

We ask one hundred people in one hundred seconds: Which economic indicators are of no use? Of course, we didn’t do it. But if we do it, and you want to win this quiz, maybe the best answer might be cutting the tariff.

Take Sweden and Canada. Both economies cut interest rates in 2024. Both have a high proportion of floating tariffs or short mortgage debts. And of course, homeowners feel the benefits of slaughtering interest rates are much faster than elsewhere, where loans with fixed interest rates are norms. The chart below shows how the average level of mortgage paid by the existing homeowner has developed since 2020.

So, both Canada and Sweden have to surpass this year, right? Wrong. Both of them led the League table estimated consensus growth in early 2025. But in reality, unemployment had increased. And the two central banks were reluctant to be forced to start the tariff reduction this month.

I simplified, clearly. There is a small tariff problem, which, who knows, might only explain more Canadian misery than interest rates. And mortgage, although it is clearly important, not the only way of interest rates affects the economy.

However, because The Fed finally started what was expected to be a series of cuts, it is better to question how useful they are. If Sweden has not succeeded in stimulating its economy with a decrease in interest rates, what opportunities do the US have, where is the 30 -year -old hypotek level?

We of course oversee the American residential market. The price of the house has fallen in each of the last four months. James Knightley expects the number next week to make it five.

Admittedly, the latest data also revealed an increase in 20% of the eyebrows that were very unusual, and frankly increase sales of new homes last month. But the number of properties sitting on the market is still high historically. The lower price pressure is more likely more likely than not. Homebuilder sentiment is very low.

The mortgage rates on new loans may fall down this summer. But they are still more than 6% – and given the average homeowner paying 4%, there is a little incentive to go up the stairs.

Further cracks in the residential market are potential problems for consumer stories, which, as often shown by James quickly, have been driven by richer Americans over the past few years.

Tariff cutting is not a fast drug for all of that, but the same, running better data this week – home sales, increase in GDP, lower unemployment claims – have asked the question whether Fed needs to cut the tariff at all.

At the nominal value, next week’s work number might support it. You will imagine that most investors are strengthened for further weaknesses, as James K said below. Contrary to that, 75,000 Creation of Clean Employment – Our own estimates – will not look so bad. And the Chairperson of Powell, don’t forget, consider the “break -even” salary – that is, employing a level that will maintain a stable unemployment rate – perhaps between zero and fifty thousand.

The broader job market still looks unpleasant. At the very least, because consumers themselves notice that the condition of the recruitment is deteriorating.

So, after cutting the tariff once, we think there is a strong case for follow -up in October and December. And my point is that the level of level of level will be slower than those who used to only add cases for urgency.

Our concern is that if – and that is still if – the job market cools further and it turns out that Fed is really behind the curve, maybe there aren’t many things that can be done in a short time.

This warning story can be applied equally here in Europe, and Swedish surprise slaughter raises the question whether the ECB is really done by cutting the rate.

We think that, but our team has highlighted the risks of further coating – whether due to the rapid reinforcement of the euro or the uncertainty of fresh tariffs. Regarding that, the threat of President Trump’s tariff on branded drugs will be the initial test of American promises to close pharmaceutical tariffs at 15%.

Flooded German stimulus also faced new questions. Only a few months ago, Carsten teased with the possibility that Germany could be one of Europe’s superiority in 2026. That was still possible, but I detected a new warning tone in our team’s thoughts this week.

Risk, as Carsten said, is that talks about savings, combined with a little creative accounting – previous investments have the potential to shift to special infrastructure funds – can increase growth in the next one or two years. Sentiment data from Germany is certainly mixed this week.

The lesson, which is very clear after Pandemi Covid and the next energy price surprise in Europe, is that fiscal policies – and tariff policies in this case – generally are far more decisive in encouraging economic views than the central bank.

France is another key example of this, while the November budget in the UK will be a driving force in determining how far more than the Bank of England cut interest rates into 2026.

So, return to the question at the beginning: Is the rate of cutting is useless? Far from that.

But are they a solution to everything that is faced by the main economy today? Almost certainly not.

Think in the future in the advanced market
United States (James Knightley)

Price of PMIS & Home: New US Activity Data has defeated expectations, and we can see a business survey improve to reflect this situation. Nevertheless, the risk remains, especially from the weakened residential market and the cooling work market. The price of houses has fallen for four consecutive months because the supply of houses to be sold began to increase while demand remains limited by lack of affordability. We hope to see the decline in the price of the fifth house in a row in the price of the house next week, which will not do anything to support the trust of consumers who are fragile.
Labor & Confidence Market: Households are concerned with tariffs that lift prices and squeeze the power of expenses, but they also become more worried about the job market. The payroll growth has slowed sharply and the revision of the new benchmark shows that this new softening comes from a much weaker position than previously thought. We are looking for a temporary mini resurrection for up to 75k next week, but this is a low -priced confidence with the market in general positioned for other soft products. Inflation remains above the target, but because of the double mandate of Fed which targets the stability of the maximum price and work, we hope that the central bank will cut the 25BP tariff in October and the December FOMC meeting.
Think in the future in Central and Eastern European
Poland (Adam Antoniak)

Flash CPI (Tue): Headline inflation is likely to be higher in September Yoy, driven by a reduction in the price of gasoline which is more shallow compared to August. Core inflation is expected to have subsided further, while food and energy inflation remains widely stable. A clearer decline in headline inflation is expected in November and December.
Czech Republic (David Havrlant)

PMI (Wed): Stable industry performance, and PMI tends to increase slightly in September. However, more convincing profits occur with doubtful demand from main European trading partners such as Germany and France. The statistical office will confirm the estimated GDP for the second quarter.
Türkiye (Muhamet Mercan)

CPI (Friday): We expect September inflation at 2.4% Mom, while the risk is on the positive side given sustainable price pressure in food with bad weather conditions and the beginning of the school season encourages higher education inflation. Annual inflation, on the other hand, will maintain a decrease trend with a decrease to 32.2% from 33% a month ago, thanks to a profitable base.
Source: Ing