Chinese LNG buyers sit in the winter point market in the middle of a sufficient supply, a weak demand
LNG Chinese importers mostly sit outside the LNG Asian market as a strong domestic production, increased supply of pipe gas, and storage that is quite easy to need for additional shipping despite the approaching winter, according to trading and industrial analysts.
China is expected to minimize the purchase of spots during the upcoming winter, reducing short -term market exposure that is volatile, said trading sources, speaking on anonymous conditions because they are not permitted to do it on notes.
“We have never heard of plans for the procurement of winter LNG from Chinese suppliers, because the current domestic supply is adequate. Usually, the process will be initiated now, but it is delayed this year,” said trading sources from one of the Chinese national oil companies.
Chinese gas supply landscape was changed in 2025 thanks to a higher domestic production and an increase in pipe delivery. Domestic production reached 173.7 BCM in January-August 2025, an increase in the year-to-year by 6.1%, according to data from the National Statistics Bureau. This increase has met the estimated growth of a full year of national energy administration.
In addition, the import of pipe gas soared, with the flow of the strength of the Russian Siberian pipeline it was expected to increase by 29% this year to nearly 39 BCM, according to estimates of the S&P Global Commodity Insights. Total Chinese pipe gas imports are estimated at 84.6 BCM in 2025, up 11% from last year.
In addition, the approved Russian tanker continues to arrive at the Beihai Terminal, with the fifth shipping departing on September 17. This additional volume then burdens the market balance.
“With this additional inventory, no second -level buyer in this region is expected to import cargo spots for winter, except for some North China importers who have the task of ensuring supply security,” said trading sources based in South China.
Storage level
The remaining storage rate increases at 70% -80% of the capacity, reducing the urgency for winter restocking. “The current level of inventory in China is high, and filling will only depend on whether winter is proven hard,” said North China source.
Winter that is cooler than average can temporarily increase consumption. But even in this scenario, Chinese high inventory and expanded storage capacity are seen to provide substantial buffers.
According to Petrochina’s report on September 10, several gas storage groups under their management, such as the Liaohe Oilfield Gas Storage Cluster – the largest gas storage cluster in China – Changqing Oil Field Storage Cluster, and Huitu River gas storage clusters in Xinjiang, have completed more than 80%, 78%, and 93%of their gas printing in Xinjiang, have completed more than 80%.
In addition, with Commissioning several new gas storage facilities, it is estimated that the work capacity of Chinese underground gas storage will reach around 31-32 BCM in 2025, an increase of around 5 BCM from last year, according to data from commodity insight.
The full supply in the Chinese market has also suppressed the price of domestic truck LNG, making Asian spots not economically attractive, according to trading sources.
“At present, we cannot buy LNG Spot at all, even for December. This is too risky. We prefer to buy domestic gas,” said East China Sumber.
The price of LNG trucks from several inland LNG disbursement factories is currently reported only in Yuan 3,700-3,800/MT, which is equivalent to around $ 10/MMBTU, according to the calculation of the platt, part of the commodity insight. Platts consider JKM November at $ 11,659/MMBTU on September 17.
Market participants hope that the average price of LNG trucks in China will be around Yuan 4,300-4,500/MT this winter, below the Yuan 5,000-6,000/MT level seen in the previous winter.
Structural demand
Outside the imbalance of temporary supply, fundamental structural changes also re -establish the Chinese gas market.
National energy administration only projects 2-3% gas consumption growth in 2025, down from 8% in 2024 and far below the supply growth rate. This slowdown reflects a broader economic transformation when growth shifts from the intensive energy industry to sophisticated technology and manufacturing.
In addition, the expansion of renewable energy is getting faster, with wind and sun accounting for more than 85% of my 325 my new power plant capacity added in January-July 2025.
“The emergence of renewable energy is reducing space for gas -fired power plants, increasing downward risk for future gas demand,” said Huang Tianshi, Associate Director for China Gas and LNG on commodity insights.
Demand from LNG heavy task trucks also weakened, because sales fell 17% in-year-year in January-July, while alternative electricity jumped by 191%.
Source: Platts
