Asian crude oil imports jumped in August, but what is demand or price?

Imports of Asia rebound crude oil in August when Chinese and Indian heavyweight buyers buy more crude oil than top exporters in the Middle East.

The top import area in the world saw the arrival of 27.18 million barrels per day (BPD) in August, up from 24.91 million BPD in July and also above 26.39 million BPD from the same month in 2024, according to data compiled by LSEG oil research.

While an increase of 2.27 million BPD from July looks strong, it should be noted that July is the weakest month for Asian imports for a year, and the arrival of August is slightly weaker than 27.98 million BPD LSEG which was traced in June.

The question for the market is whether the restoration of imports August is a sign of strengthening demand in Asia, or if there are other factors at work.

Taking a step back from the volatility of the moon-to-month showed that the import of Asian crude oil has been tracking higher so far in 2025.

For the period January to August, imports are 27.02 million BPD, namely 510,000 BPD higher than 26.51 million BPD for 2024 as a whole.

This increase seems to be weaker than the estimated growth of oil demand made by the Oil Exporting State Organization (OPEC) in the August monthly report.

OPEC estimates that the growth of Asian oil demand will be 710,000 BPD in 2025, led by an increase of 200,000 BPD in China, the largest crude oil importer in the world, and 220,000 BPD in India, the second largest importer in Asia.

Moving prices

The problem is that these two countries are buyers who are sensitive to prices, which means that when the price of crude oil down they tend to buy more, but cut imports when rising.

The cargo that Arriving August will mostly be purchased at the window from May to mid -June, when the oil price is mostly stable around the lowest level so far this year.

Benchmark Global Brent Futures drove to the lowest four years $ 58.50 per barrel on May 5, before recovering to the level of $ 60s in mid-June.

Prices at this level are likely to encourage Chinese and Indian refiners to increase purchases, especially because the refinery maintenance season also ends.

However, a brief conflict between Israel and Iran at the end of June, which later joined the US, saw the oil price soaring higher, with Brent reaching the highest of six months $ 81.40 per barrel on June 23.
While the price has returned to around $ 68.40 per barrel in Asian trade on Tuesday, a sharp increase in June can cause Asian buyers such as China and India to cut the import of cargo which will arrive in September.

The increase in Asian imports in August also came in the midst of a voluntary production by eight members of the OPEC+ group, including the two largest exporters of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Asian imports from two OPEC+ leaders grew in August, with the arrival of Saudi Arabia reaching 5.20 million BPD in August, up from 4.77 million BPD in July and most since March, while imports from Russia were 3.48 million BPD in August, up from 3.39 million BPD in July.

Asian imports from other Middle Eastern exporters including the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Oman also increased in August from the July level.

The overall picture that arises from the import of Asian crude oil is that they are a little higher so far this year, but it is still lacking than the estimated demand made by OPEC.

It also seems that the price encourages imports by China and India, and that every supply of supply caused by production cuts by the OPEC+ group begins to facilitate.
Source: Reuters