Tanker: Is it back to normal on the card?
A Potential peace in Ukraine can, in theory, return the tanker market to a kind of normal. In its latest weekly report, the Gibson ship said that “ton ton miles (raw/DPP/CPP) grew 5.4% in 2022 after the invasion and 7.2% in 2023 after the implementation of European embargoes, which could not be done by the major. Gained only 1% in 2024, and contracted 4% for this year”.
However, “It is still very debated whether the trade flow may return to” normal “in the event of a peaceful agreement. The current leaders in Britain, France and Germany, as well as the Baltic countries and other European Unions may try hard to prevent swing to return to Russian energy trade, especially in good matters to control Russia. NATO, concessions seem to be on the table. back to the previous level.
“Thus, in terms of tons of tons, the reaction of European leaders is the most important. If Europe lifts the current embargo in Russian oil, this will have significant negative implications for tanker demand. If sanctions are revoked, discounts for Russian oil will narrow and people who consist of Europe will see more competitions for Russian cargo. West, America and the Middle East) depends on the price and purification margin for a certain value, “said Gibson.
Impact on the size of the tanker
The Shipbroker added that “for crude tankers, aframaxes, followed by suzmaxes were the greatest beneficiaries of the conflict, whilest vlccs lost market share. As Major Vlcc Destinations, India and China Might Might have preferred to continuue to use larger tankers, but Given Russian Port Restrictions, were required to switches to Aframax and Suezmax Tonnage. Thus, Any Increase in Indian or Chinese Buying from the Outside Russia, is likely to be Benefit VLCC more than other sizes, considering that cargo tends to come from West Africa,
For clean tankers, LR2 and MRS sees the strongest profits in miles when closing the price of enhanced products come into force. Madam may see less losses from the flow of trade that returns, considering they can be re -employed on Russian exports to Europe, while the lady in the US Gulf will also regain several market share in Latin America. However, for LR2S it is difficult to find a positive view, with LR2 feel the burden of decline in trade from East to Europe “.
Impact on the dark fleet
According to Gibson, “However, the return to” new normal “is not entirely negative. Since 2022, the dark/gray/illegal fleet has grown to more than 1,160 ships, more than 63% of them are now approved. More than 92% above 15 years and more than 62% of those who are more than 62%. trading history of boxes.
Gibson concluded that “once again, we are now facing an uncertain period in which negotiations between the US and Russia, with or without Ukraine and European involvement, can lay the foundation for the end of hostility. It is impossible at this stage to determine what might happen to deer, and most importantly, European policy on Russia and energy exports that might occur. Sanctions”.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News worldwide
