Bauxite, Steel, and Fertilizer: Global Geopolitical Push and Drips
MBulk Inor, consisting of all types of dry cargo that is not categorized as iron ore, coal, or seeds, consistently outperforming the previous year in terms of the total tonnage exported. In July, this trend was no different because the total tonnage of small bulk exports grew by 8% compared to the same period last year. Apart from the increasing geopolitical tension and economic landscape, small bulks sustain global demand for ships.
Minor bulk
Bauxite
Global bauxite exports reached 19.2MT in July, according to Signal Ocean. This represents an increase of 8% y/y but 14% falls m/m. This fall is expected, given the season, but representing a steeper decline than what is seen in recent years.
Looking closer to exports from Guinea, July exports dropped 14% M/M, which in line with June to July reduced historically. The greater M/M driver globally is Australia, who sees exports falling 9% M/M in July, which is unusual considering various historical changes from June to July are between -5% and 9%.
China remains the main destination for all bauxite streams, contributing more than 84% in July. China is the largest aluminum producer globally and contributes up to 60% of the total world. The latest statistics for Chinese electricity aluminum production in June are 3.8 MT, flat in May.
The market commentator expects the number for July to be slightly higher because the greater operating capacity will come online; They also expect high production in August. This must provide a solid level of demand for bauxite over the next few months.
However, it is more urgent for this industry is the latest mandate by the Guinea government. The Minister of Mining and Geology announced that 50% of all bauxite exports would require shipping under the Guinea flag. The important part of the reform is the formation of Guinéenne Des Transports Maritimes (Guitram), which will be assigned to send the proportion of baukit mandated from the guinea and allow the government to ‘strengthen the domestic control chain of value’ through logistics sovereignty. At present, Guitram has not yet publicly announced if he has a ship.
The winning group, from Hong Kong China, was the largest commercial ship operator carrying bauxite from Guinea in July 2025, contributed 15% of all shipments with tonnage, bringing all cargo to China. In theory, ships can change the flags where they fly directly, and provide new direction from Guinea, it is assumed they will make an easy flag transfer. What is unclear is how the ship will be taxed and protected. A similar initiative has been proposed before and has no significant follow -up but given how the Bauxite trade has supported the request for capsize, development remains an attractive main area for all parties involved.
Steel
The Ocean signal recorded a global steel export of 19.9 million in July, up 10% y/y but dropped 3% m/m. This movement is in line with the historical trend of July exports that failed from the previous month. China continues to dominate in terms of cargo origin, contributing 43%of all steel exports in the month and 33%since 2021. In terms of destination, it is a relative division even between the US, 7%, India, 6%, and Indonesia, 5%.
Globally, steel production has fallen so far this year by 2.2%, slipping further than in May. China contributed 55% of global production and guided 2024’s own production by 3% so far in 2025, encouraging most of the global decline. However, the year-to-date (YTD) number shows an increase in steel exports by 11%, with exports originating from China up 35% YTD. The decline in Chinese domestic production is the result of slow demand because many sectors that eat the main steel in this country have slowed; Therefore, producers have seen export market growth as a main source of income. Chinese steel exports at very competitive prices, given the low cost of production in China, and this has led to trade tension and quota implementation in steel and anti-dumping policies. Most, this has been designed to support the domestic steel industry in regions such as Europe and the US
But Chinese exports still encourage global steel trade, and we see the proportion of crude steel production that is developed based on sea signal data. In 2023, China’s monthly exports were 21% of domestic production, rising to 22% in 2024, and at present, it was at 23% in 2025, a small growth but had an impact. In the future to August, the relationship between Chinese raw steel production and global steel exports refers to softer export volumes. Monthly raw steel production in China tends to show what exports are in two months. The latest raw steel production rate for China is for June, 4% down in May; Therefore, a decrease in similar steel exports in August can be expected as well.
Fertilizer
The fertilizer delivery reached 19.5 million in July, up 13% Y/Y and M/M flat according to the Ocean signal. Flat, only 0.5% of the decline in M/M, in July is not a norm, such as from June to July, Signal Ocean usually records a greater decline in fertilizer exports. This is the result of a northern hemisphere that moves past the peak demand period.
Russia leads the rest of the world in terms of origin for fertilizers, with 17% of global tonnage being shipped from russian ports since 2022. So far in 2025, Russia has been the origin of 19% of all fertilizers shipments on the signal Ocean Platform Importers Coming Under Scrutiny From The Us
Brazil is the largest fertilizer importer, contributing 20% of all global tonnage so far in 2024, with 25% from Russia. The agricultural sector in Brazil is worried that Trump can follow up with its threat to place “100% secondary tariffs” in countries that continue to import Russian goods; Brazilian goods are currently facing a 50% tariff on August 6. Brazil only sent about 2% of its agricultural products to the US, but this secondary tariff can be adopted by other regions as a way to curb Russian export purchases. However, Brazil mostly depends on China as an importer of agricultural products, and this seems impossible to be influenced by any US actions.
Elsewhere, there are reports that China has stopped sending specialist fertilizer to India. Although China only contributed 6.2% of the total imports of Indian fertilizer, China is origin for about 80% of Indian special fertilizer. This can have a knock-on effect on how well Indian agricultural products during the following season. The biggest recipient of agricultural products from India is China, but India has contributed less than 1% of the total agricultural products in China’s imports since 2022, so that China will not be affected if the lack of specific fertilizer imports to India affects the results.
Overall, fertilizer performance for the shipping industry has been strong for 2025 so far. Ton Miles for sending fertilizer to Brazil or India, the two largest importers, have outperformed 2024 and 2023, with a seasonal decline that will come far later.
This will support Supramax demand, which carries around 44% of all exports of fertilizer during the slower coal demand period.
Source: signal
