FX: What our customers think
Customers are still bullish in EUR/USD
Yesterday, we held the webinar to share the spotlight of our latest FX Talking publication: Powell Play Dollar Defense. The important part of the webinar is always the audience poll. Of course, this year our poll has shown a strong direction bias for a lower dollar – than a normal distribution that has characterized a poll in previous years. In the case of yesterday’s poll, 71% of our customers now expect EUR/USD to end the years above 1.15. It was comparable to 60% who felt the same thing during our last poll was carried out in early June.
We agree with the view that the dollar will end the year on a weaker side based on home view that Fed cuts 50BP in December, and speculation about the replacement of Fed Powell’s seats is at Fever Pitch. Remember that the term of office of Governor Adriana Kugler ended on January 31, 2026. The replacement is likely to be the choice of President Trump to replace Powell in May.
Safe Havens: Swiss Franc is still liked
On the webinar, we stated that the Swiss National Bank struggled to deal with a strong Swiss Franc. Although the Swiss interest rate is zero and SNB is likely to intervene in the Franc’s advantage further, our customers still feel that the Swiss Franc will be a safe-haven currency that is liked in the event of a crisis of other dollar beliefs.
Here, the assumption is that a very large Swiss payment payment surplus will provide a lot of protection to Franc during the deleveraging or portfolio attack.
Emea: Koruna is liked, Zloty is surprising
At Emea, I am happy to see customers supporting our calls that Czech Koruna will continue to be one of the strongest currencies this year. This has become the view that we propose even before the ‘Liberation Day’ rate. And we are also looking for sustainable CZK power throughout 2026 as well. We were a little surprised that customers were almost the same bullish in Zloty Poland. We will think that the new change of Dovish – this is the new Poland National Bank may have prevented the sound for Zloty – but not.
What also needs to be considered is that there are very few voices for Turkish Lira and Forint Hungarian-maybe recognize that recent profits inspired by trade may not be repeated.
Asia: Yen remains liked
It is very interesting to see that JPY comes out on a poll that asks which Asian currency has the strongest appreciation potential for the next 12 months, with 51% of votes.
That is in line with several assessment models that we have tracked, and our view of appreciation is almost 8% of the current level until the end of 2Q26. However, the path is not possible to be smooth like the selection of the Assembly next week and the increase in JGB results can be negative for JPY in the near future.
On the other hand, it is noted that Korea wins and the Taiwanese dollar receives less support, despite seeing a newly new foreign entrance. This might reflect a slower hedge for FX values by lifers and pension funds from before.
Latam: Rates to dominate
We compiled Latam questions to find out which factors would have an eternal impact on the Latam currency. As a block, they have a good second quarter because low volatility has supported Carry Trade and the region has avoided the worst tariffs.
However, it might change in the third quarter. And customers feel the tariff story will be dominant. Here, Brazil is currently faced with a 50%rate. The US has not been seen finished with Mexico. And the authorities at Chile do not know whether 50% of US copper rates apply to Chile. As we said on the webinar, we felt that Peso Chili looked weakened from the three when the price of copper fell and real interest rates were relatively low in Chile leaving a peso with a little protection.
Source: Ing
