Dry bulk market: rates below the average seasonal for most ship classes

WWith the exception of the Castesize sector, most other ship classes have seen trading tariffs far below the last seven years for the summer period. In its latest weekly report, Shipbroker Xclusiv said that “Data Analysis of Daily Baltic Exchange Time Charter (TCE) from January 2018 to 10 July 2025 revealed a persistent seasonal cycle in all Dry-Bulk ship classes available, Kamsarmax, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize. Median. We then compare this benchmark with June-2025 (full June plus the first ten days of July).

Source: Xclusiv

According to xclusiv, “for capsize vessels, which typically see peaks in late winter linked to chinese steel restocking and a subsequent plateau in summer, the historical June -july average TCE is $ 21,740 per day and the median is $ 22.444 per day. In The June -July 2025 Window, Capesize Rates Averaged $ 21,613 per day-Just 0.6 percent below the seven-year mean-and recorded a median $ 22,592 per day, around 0.7 percent above the historical median.

“The Kamsarmax segment, which combines coal and grain trade and usually posts the average June-July $ 16,662 per day (median $ 13,906), shows more tenderness. Around 610, around 610, around 610, around 610, around 610 610, around 610 per day, around 610, around 610 per day below 610 per day below 610 per day below 610 per day below 610 foundations below 610 per day below 60 years.

Likewise, Xclusiv noted that “Supramax ships, valued because of their flexibility in all minor rods, fertilizers, and steel products, historically recorded June-July on average approaching $ 15,418 per day with a median of $ 11,414. In the current period, the Supramax averaged $ 10,530 per day-31.7 per day. 11,224 per day, more than 11 percent above this historical median.

Source: Xclusiv

“In summary, while the characteristic seasonal cycle-highs highs followed by a summer moderating phase-remains intact, its amplitude has varied by vessel class in mid-2025. Castesize and Handysize Segments are essentially Kamsarmax, Panamax, and Supramax Freight Rates are Running 9–10 Percent Below Their Seasonal Medians and 25-32 Percent Below Their Long-Run Average Summer. Dry scrolls or just a temporary mid -year pause, “which was concluded by the broker.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News worldwide