China’s main commodity imports show an increase in price sensitivity
The import of China’s large commodity presents a mixed picture in the first round, but if there is a clear trend, it is that the top natural buyer of the world’s resources is increasingly sensitive to prices.
Imports of crude oil are almost no higher during the first six months of the same period last year, the arrival of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) is weak, as well as coal imports.
Copper is mixed, with the arrival of lower processed metals, but the delivery of ore and higher concentrate, while the import of iron ore is slightly softer, according to official data released on Monday.
The traditional market view in commodities is that the demand and fundamental supply of lead prices, but China is increasingly becoming a level of import to react to the applicable price.
Crude oil is a good example of this.
For the first quarter of 2025 China, the largest importer in the world, saw a decline in arrival, with imports down 1.5% from the same period in 2024.
However, the second quarter saw an increase in crude oil imports, which culminated at the arrival of 12.14 million barrels per day (BPD) in June, the strongest month since August 2023.
The increase in imports of the second quarter was sufficient to change the total positive first half, with the arrival up 1.4% from the first six months of 2024.
The main driver of import change in the second quarter is price.
Benchmark Global Brent Futures Brn1! Being on a downward trend during the period when the second quarter cargo will be arranged.
The price fell from the highest $ 75.47 per barrel on April 2 to the lowest level of four years $ 58.50 on May 5.
Conversely, soft imports from the first quarter come against the background of price increases during the window when the cargo will be purchased.
Brent rose from the lowest $ 70.85 per barrel on December 6 to the highest six months $ 82.63 on January 15, which means Chinese refiners faced an increase in import costs for the cargo that arrived in the first quarter.
The same price dynamics are working with LNG, with spot prices for shipping to North Asia (LNG-US) reaching the highest of 15 months $ 16.10 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) this week to February 14.
Strong European LNG demand has kept the price of Asia’s spot increase, with the usual seasonal decline after the peak of winter is much less spoken in 2025.
This in turn has led to a sharp decline in LNG imports, with the commodity analyst KPler estimates a 22% decline from the first round to 30.24 million metric tons.
LNG imports that are weaker are enough to drag the total imports of China’s natural gas from very cold fuel and from pipes under 7.8% in the first round, according to official data.
The tariff for driving copper
Copper is another example of the price effect on Chinese imports, although in a rather different form.
China’s not copper imports fell 4.6% in the first half to 2,633 million tons.
This is mostly because the import of copper by the United States jumped when traders anticipated the imposition of tariffs by President Donald Trump, with a task of 50% announced last week.
As a result, the copper cargo aimed at China was diverted to the United States, giving benefits to the two Chinese buyers, who received premiums, and for traders because they could get a cargo to the United States before the tariff, and can now use the large premium that now exists for industrial metals.
But while the refined copper imports were lower, the arrival of ore and concentrate rose 6.4% in the first half to 14.75 million tons, a sign that the demand from the smelter remained strong.
Iron ore also shows the impact of price, although this is a large amount of import picture in the middle of most of the stable prices.
Iron ore imports dropped 3.0% in the first half to 592.21 million tons in the middle of a slightly lower steel output and a decrease in inventory port.
The iron ore contract traded by Singapore (Szzfc1) ended at $ 97.70 per ton on Monday, and was traded in the range of $ 15 so far in 2025 with a midpoint of around $ 99.
This stability has contracted with a much broader range that is seen in other commodities such as crude oil and copper.
Maybe the only main commodity imported by China that does not show price sensitivity is coal, where both import volume and price have declined.
Chinese coal imports fell 11.1% in the first half to 221.7 million tons, while the main values of Indonesia and Australia supplied to China fell to the lowest position of four years, according to an assessment by the Argus commodity price reporting agency.
Chinese domestic coal output increased 6% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, cutting import needs.
But the overall message of imports of Chinese commodities is that for the commodity it does not control supply chains or dominates purchases, China becomes much more responsive to price changes and will adjust the appropriate import volume.
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Source: Reuters
